EBRD talks on conditions affecting Turkmenistan’s GDP growth
Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov.13
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
GDP growth in Turkmenistan’s is forecast to slow to 6.2 percent in 2018 and 5.6 percent in 2019, EBRD said in its Transition report 2018-2019.
“In the first three quarters of 2018 officially reported real GDP growth was 6.2 percent year-on-year, following 6.5 percent growth in 2017. Fixed investment fell by 20.2 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2018, from its previously very high levels. Industrial production grew by 4.2 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2018,” said the report.
EBRD noted that while exports rose in the first half of 2018 by 43.4 percent year-on-year, they still remain well below their peak in 2014 following declines in the past three years.
“Import substitution policies led to a reduction of imports by 43.5 percent in the same period.GDP growth is forecast to slow to 6.2 percent in 2018 and 5.6 percent in 2019,” said the report.
The Bank believes that growth will be weighed down by relatively small export growth, a further contraction of domestic consumption and fiscal consolidation efforts.
“The dependence of Turkmenistan’s exports on China remains a major vulnerability to the economy. If, however, significant gas exports to Russia resume, it would ease the economic situation,” said EBRD.
Turkmenistan joined EBRD in June 1992. Cumulative EBRD investment in Turkmenistan to date amounted to 252 million euros.
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