Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 2 / Trend A.Badalova /
One of the largest U.S. bank JP Morgan forecasts the price for North Sea Brent crude oil for 2011 at $92 per barrel. The bank's analysts, however, does not exclude the probability of a price increase to $100 per barrel.
According to new projections of the bank, the price for U.S. crude oil WTI will amount to $90 per barrel in 2011. In the fourth quarter of 2010 prices for Brent and WTI will hit $88 and $86 per barrel, respectively.
World oil prices increased by more than three percent on the backdrop of favorable data on the economies of the U.S. and China. Following the auction on Wednesday, Dec.1, the January futures price for WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $2.64 to $86.75 per barrel. On the London Stock Exchange price of the August futures for Brent rose by $3.42 to $88.87 per barrel.
Based on JP Morgan's report on the prospects of the global commodity market in 2011, the likelihood of price increases to $ 100 per barrel or higher in 2011 is linked with expectations of continuous growth in world oil demand. According to the bank's forecasts, the growth in world oil demand, which will mainly occur at the expense of emerging markets, will hit 1.6 million barrels per day (or 1.8 percent) in 2011. 25 percent growth in world demand will fell to China.
The growth of oil supplies by non-OPEC companies will significantly lag behind the growth in world oil demand, which will lead to an increase in OPEC production levels.
In 2011, JP Morgan predicts oil supply by non- OPEC countries at 50.9 million barrels per day, which is more by 0.5 million barrels per day than the figure in 2010. OPEC oil supplies are projected to increase by 0.4 million to 29.4 million barrels per day in 2011.
JP Morgan forecasts for oil prices, 2010-2011 (in $ / bl)
|
2010 IV quarter |
2011 I quarter |
2011 II quarter |
2011 III quarter |
2011 IV quarter |
|
|
Brent |
88 |
90 |
90 |
92 |
95 |
|
WTI |
86 |
88 |
88 |
90 |
93 |