Azerbaijan, Baku, Oct. 25 /Trend, A.Badalova/
The possible transit of Turkmen gas to Ukraine via Russian pipelines will partly divert Turkmenistan from negotiations with Europe, Pavel Sorokin, Senior Oil & Gas Analyst at Alfa-Bank believes.
"It does not mean that the EU will lose Turkmenistan as the potential supplier in the long-term perspective," Sorokin told Trend via e-mail on Tuesday. "But transiting gas to Ukraine may divert Turkmenistan from the negotiations with Europe, and to some extent offset the decrease in Gazprom's purchase."
Last week Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said that Moscow is ready to allow Kiev to use Russian pipelines to transit Turkmen gas to Ukraine. He said the parties agreed for the first time that within six months of sanctioning an agreement on creating a free trade zone within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the agreement on the Turkmen gas transit term to Ukraine will be signed.
Andrew Reed, an ESAI analyst, believes that Turkmenistan can supply gas to Ukraine, but the only question is whether Gazprom will agree upon direct sales.
"Part of the gas sold to Ukraine by Gazprom is from Turkmenistan and other Central Asian suppliers," Reed told Trend via e-mail. "Since April 2011 Ukraine's gas imports has included Central Asian and Russian volumes, where for almost two years before that Ukraine's imports were exclusively from Russia".
Reed said Turkmenistan has an established history of issuing changing and confusing signals about priority gas export routes.
According to Reed, while Turkmen authorities more openly are pursuing the Trans-Caspian option, it is hardly surprising that Ashgabat simultaneously would entertain alternatives.
Turkmenistan is considered as the potential gas supplier for the EU. Turkmen gas may be used as the source for priority Nabucco gas pipeline project at the second stage of its realization.
In mid-September, the EU adopted a mandate to negotiate a legally binding treaty between the EU, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to build a Trans-Caspian Pipeline System. All 27 EU members agreed to task the European Commission with leading negotiations with the two Caspian countries.
Trans-Caspian pipeline will serve as the way for Turkmen gas to reach European markets. The pipeline, with a length of 300 kilometers, will be laid from the Turkmen coast of the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, where it will be connected to the Southern Gas Corridor. Talks between Turkmenistan and the EU and other countries on the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline have been conducted since late 1990s.
According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, in early 2011 proved reserves of gas in Turkmenistan amounted to 8 trillion cubic meters. In s 2010 Turkmenistan's gas production increased by 1.3 percent to 42.4 billion cubic meters in 2010.