Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 17 / Trend A. Badalova /
Global liquids consumption will rise by 16 million barrels per day (bpd) and reach 104 million bpd by 2030, however the growth will slow to 0.8 percent per annual (from 1.4 percent per annual in 1990-2010), BP Energy Outlook 2030 said.
Oil is expected by BP to be the slowest growing fuel over the next 20 years. Demand growth is projected to come exclusively from rapidly growing non-OECD economies. China, India and the Middle East together account for nearly the entire net global increase.
According to BP's report, OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) consumption by the mentioned period will fall by 5.6 million bpd to 40.5 million bpd. Non-OECD consumption is projected to overtake the OECD by 2014, and reach 63 million bpd by 2030.
BP forecasts China's liquids demand to grow by 7 million bpd to 17 million bpd in 2030, surpassing the US in 2029 as the latter's demand will fall by 2 million bpd to 16.5 million bpd over the outlook period.
"Other non-OECD Asia also shows strong growth of 6 million bpd, of which almost two-thirds are in India," the report said. The Middle East is expected to be the next largest contributor to growth over the outlook period at 3.5 million bpd.
BP believes the US to surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia in 2013 as the largest liquids producer in the world. Russia, according to BP's expectations, will likely pass Saudi Arabia for the second slot in 2013 and hold that until 2023. Saudi Arabia regains the top oil producer slot by 2027.
The US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia will supply over a third of global liquids, the report said.
According to the report, rising supply to meet expected demand growth will come primarily from non-OPEC unconventional sources and later from OPEC.
By 2030, non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 8.5 million bpd while OPEC production will expand by 7.6 million bpd.
BP believes OPEC oil output will not return to the expected 2013 level of about 30 million bpd until 2020 as non-OPEC supplies dominate global growth. "From 2020-30, however, supplies will likely expand by 5.1 million bpd as non-OPEC output growth fades," BP said.