Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec.10
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Iran’s gas demand will rise at an average growth rate of 1.9 percent between 2017 and 2040, according to the 2018 Global Gas Outlook released by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
“Natural gas represented nearly 65 percent of the energy consumed in Iran last year, and its share will remain almost stagnant at 2017 levels in 2040. Rich gas reserves, as well as low domestic prices, are the two main reasons for such a high dependence on natural gas resources,” Trend reports citing GECF.
Gas consumption trebled between 2000 and 2017 at an annual average growth rate of 7 percent, from 62 bcm to 195 bcm, said the GECF report.
“Milder political conditions in recent years, the lifting of sanctions as a result of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in January 2016, economic development and population growth can explain the increase,” said the organization.
This report expects that gas demand will keep rising to approximately 301 bcm, at an average growth rate of 1.9 percent between 2017 and 2040. “Consumption stems from the fact that Iran has the highest subsidised fuel prices in the world and has a high energy intensity, in particular gas consumption.”
“As natural gas is the primary fuel source for electricity generation, the power generation sector consumes the most gas relative to other sectors, with almost 64 bcm in 2017 (33 percent of total gas demand). Gas-fired generation will continue to play an important role in the power sector, with around 37 GW of gas-fired projects in various stages of completion,” GECF believes.
With approximately 81 million inhabitants, Iran’s domestic sectors are the second-biggest consumers of gas.
“In 2017 over 28 percent (55 bcm) of Iran’s gas was consumed in these sectors, of which 47 bcm was consumed in the residential. The industrial sector and the export of petrochemical products significantly contribute to the Iranian economy. The industrial sector consumed over 41 bcm (21 percent of total gas demand) in 2017. Due to the Iran’s improved economic prospects, it is expected that gas consumption in the industrial sector will reach 77 bcm (26 percent of total consumption) in 2040,” said the report.
Iran holds the world’s fourth-largest proved crude oil reserves, and the world’s second-largest proved natural gas reserves. Iran also ranks among the world’s top ten oil producers, and top five natural gas producers and consumers in the world.
The country has a high success rate in natural gas exploration, which is estimated at 79 percent compared to the world average of 30–35 percent.
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