EIA reveals forecasts for world energy consumption
Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan.6
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50 percent between 2018 and 2050, Trend reports citing the International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019) Reference case of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Most of this growth comes from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and this growth is focused in regions where strong economic growth is driving demand, particularly in Asia.
The industrial sector, which includes refining, mining, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction, accounts for the largest share of energy consumption of any end-use sector—more than half of end-use energy consumption throughout the projection period. World industrial sector energy use increases by more than 30 percent between 2018 and 2050 as consumption of goods increases. By 2050, global industrial energy consumption reaches about 315 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu).
Transportation energy consumption increases by nearly 40 percent between 2018 and 2050. This increase is largely driven by non-OECD countries, where transportation energy consumption increases nearly 80 percent between 2018 and 2050. Energy consumption for both personal travel and freight movement grows in these countries much more rapidly than in many OECD countries.
Energy consumed in the buildings sector, which includes residential and commercial structures, increases by 65 percent between 2018 and 2050, from 91 quadrillion to 139 quadrillion Btu. Rising income, urbanization, and increased access to electricity lead to rising demand for energy.
With the rapid growth of electricity generation, renewables—including solar, wind, and hydroelectric power—are the fastest-growing energy source between 2018 and 2050, surpassing petroleum and other liquids to become the most used energy source in the Reference case. Worldwide renewable energy consumption increases by 3.1 percent per year between 2018 and 2050, compared with 0.6 percent annual growth in petroleum and other liquids, 0.4 percent growth in coal, and 1.1 percent annual growth in natural gas consumption.
Global natural gas consumption increases more than 40 percent between 2018 and 2050, and total consumption reaches nearly 200 quadrillion Btu by 2050. In addition to the natural gas used in electricity generation, natural gas consumption increases in the industrial sector. Chemical and primary metals manufacturing, as well as oil and natural gas extraction, account for most of the growing industrial demand.
Global liquid fuels consumption increases more than 20 percent between 2018 and 2050, and total consumption reaches more than 240 quadrillion Btu in 2050. Demand in OECD countries remains relatively stable during the projection period, but non-OECD demand increases by about 45 percent.
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