BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov.9
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Annual capex for fossil fuel supply may increase (high case) or decrease (low case) by +/-10-15% by 2040, Trend reports with reference to Italian Saipem company.
“Exploration and production (E&P) oil capex would either be stable or decrease (up to -15 percent), partly sustained by the need to replace depleting reserves. E&P gas capex would grow in both the high and low case scenarios due both to demand growth and the need to replace depleting reserves. Midstream gas capex should visibly grow in both scenarios to provide available and sufficient transport infrastructure (including LNG) to sustain gas demand growth.
“Refining capex would be stable in the high case, and significantly decrease in low case scenario. Petrochemical investments would visibly increase in both cases due to global economic and population growth and the lack of substitutes. Annual capex for renewable supply is expected to grow significantly in both scenarios up to 2040, only mitigated by the assumption of a continued fast unitary capex decrease (2018-40: C. -30 percent for onshore wind, and above -50 percent for solar).
“In all the scenarios analysed, oil is expected to remain a part of the energy mix in the near future, while gas will play a key role across different scenarios as a source that will be able to drive the transition towards a more sustainable energy mix. In this context, large-scale investment in oil and especially gas infrastructures will remain necessary even in the medium to long-term and we expect traditional clients to continue to invest in long-term strategic projects, especially in some key regions, such as the Middle East and Africa. Their focus will gradually encompass cutting-edge technological solutions with a lower carbon footprint, representing a significant opportunity for Saipem. The effort in developing technologies, the commitment to constantly adapt the competence mix and innovation initiatives are the most effective levers that Saipem is exploiting to tackle climate related challenges that the industry is managing today,” said the company.
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