BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.22
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Despite the focus on net-zero pathways, robust oil demand growth is expected for the next few years, Trend reports with reference to the Energy Intelligence 2022 Outlook.
“Our demand forecast sees 2022 averaging 100.5 million b/d with highs of 103 million b/d in peak months. In 2023, demand rises to around 102 million b/d and over 104 million b/d at the highs. We see non-OPEC+ liquids supply growing by about 2.2 million b/d in 2022, led by the US. This will lag demand growth of 3.1 million b/d, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. This makes OPEC+ critical to oil market balances. Members will need to prove they can deliver the supply,” the report reads.
The Energy Intelligence company notes that readily available spare capacity is only about 3 million b/d, we estimate, with downside risks from underinvestment. High prices may be needed to activate more over the next one to two years.
“Market balances in the OECD will be in particular focus. In the Americas, we see demand cover dropping back to levels seen before the shale boom. This could well drive prices over $90 this summer, activating more supply,” the report says.
Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn