BAKU, Azerbaijan, Aug.6. It appears unlikely that Russian pipeline gas flows on any route that has stopped will be restarted, Trend reports with reference to Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
“This applies to pipeline exports to Finland and the Baltic states, pipeline exports to Poland via Belarus and Ukraine, exports to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, and the flow at Sokhranivka on the Russia-Ukraine border. Furthermore, the situation with turbines at the Portovaya compressor station remains far from clear, and it appears reasonable to assume that Nord Stream will continue to operate at reduced capacity for the rest of summer, and potentially beyond. At the same time, the fact that Gazprom declared force majeure on supplies to counterparties in Slovakia, Austria, and Italy, while not increasing flows via Ukraine at Sudzha (despite having available pre-booked capacity at that interconnection) suggests that Gazprom will not substantially increase flows via Ukraine,” reads a report released by OIES.
The report reveals that the most optimistic scenario could see one more turbine come back online at Portovaya, thus bringing Nord Stream flows back to 65-67 MMcm/d, and flows at Sudzha reaching the pre-booked capacity level of 77 MMcm/d.
“This would add roughly 70 MMcm/d of Russian pipeline supply compared to the flow on 31 July. Conversely, a pessimistic scenario would see flows via both Nord Stream and Ukraine halt entirely – the former could happen if the final turbine is taken offline and is not replaced, the latter could happen if there is any type of damage to transit pipeline infrastructure. Given that GTSOU issued a press release on 26 July, stating that Gazprom had, without warning, raised the pressure on the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline at Sudzha on the Russia-Ukraine border, adding that such a move ‘carries potential risks for the normal operation of the Ukrainian GTS’, fears for the security of gas supply via Ukraine cannot be dismissed,” says OIES.
A ‘middle ground’ scenario would be for flows via Nord Stream and Ukraine to continue at their current level.
“This would imply Nord Stream flows in August and September at roughly 135 MMcm/d below the level of August-September 2021, and flows via Ukraine at Velké Kapušany 30-45 MMcm/d lower yearon-year. This year-on-year decline of 165-180 MMcm/d is in addition to the loss of 55 MMcm/d that was also delivered to north-western Europe via the Yamal-Europe pipeline at Mallnow in August-September 2021. Therefore, even this scenario implies the loss of 220-235 MMcm/d of Russian pipeline supply to central and north-western Europe in August-September 2022, compared to the same period in 2021. Such daily volumes equate to 13.4-14.3 Bcm in August and September combined.”
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