BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb. 13
By Klavdiya Romakayeva - Trend:
The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund forecast the rates of economic growth of the countries-foreign trade partners of Uzbekistan will begin to gradually recover in 2021, Trend reports referring to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU).
The review of monetary policy for the IV quarter of 2020 says that if the expected conditions are maintained in 2021, the inflation rate by the end of the year will be about 9-10 percent.
The CBU notes that despite the fact that many countries have started vaccination against the coronavirus since December 2020, the pandemic is still ongoing around the world, and in this regard, the re-introduction of quarantine restrictions by some countries is causing uncertainty.
According to the forecasts of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, in 2021 the rates of economic growth of the countries-foreign trade partners of Uzbekistan will begin to gradually recover.
At the same time, their exchange rates of national currencies against the US dollar are expected to remain stable without sharp fluctuations. By the end of the year, international remittances will grow by 8-10 percent. This means that a stable exchange rate of the soum can be expected.
One of the main factors of inflation in 2021 is the postponement of the increase in energy prices as part of the reforms to liberalize prices for the next years, as well as the preservation of regulated tariffs for goods (services), especially for utilities, unchanged.
It is also predicted that in 2021 the volume of loan investments will amount to about 16-20 percent and will put less pressure on inflation.
The CBU also noted that in the context of uncertainty affecting price dynamics, the stable formation of inflation in 2021 around 9-10 percent will mainly depend on these conditions.
At the same time, the CBU will pursue a monetary policy based on the level of projected inflation.
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