By Dalga Khatinoglu
The latest statistics about the country's liquid fuel consumption indicates a 3.4 billion liter decrease during the last none months, mostly due to delivering more natural gas to power plants. This pushed the diesel and fuel oil burning in this sector lower.
However, the details of consumed various energy carriers imply that Iran's liquid fuel consumption would likely remain unchanged compared to last fiscal year.
Iran's fiscal year starts on March 21.
Iran delivery of 160 billion cubic meters (bcm) of dry gas to domestic sectors during the last nine months increased 12 percent. While, according to the official statistics, the country consumed about 60 billion liters of liquid fuels (gasoline, fuel oil, diesel and kerosene) during this period, 3.349 billion liter less than the same period last year.
The details of consumed liquid fuels indicate that among liquid fuels, only the consumption of fuel oil and kerosene decreased by 27 percent and 10 percent respectively.
It's noticeable that Iran delivered 10 bcm and 2.8 bcm more natural gas to power plants and the housing sector during the first nine months of current fiscal year compared to the same period last year.
Regarding the fact that the housing sector shares 93 percent of kerosene consumption, and fuel oil and diesel meets 45 percent of needed fuel for power plants, then the decrease in kerosene and fuel oil usage was expected during the last nine months.
|
Liquid fuel |
Consumption last year (million liters per day) |
Consumption during last 9 months (million liters per day) |
9-month period change (%) |
|
Gasoline* |
72 |
69.8 |
2% |
|
Kerosene |
11.73 |
10 |
- 10% |
|
Diesel |
102.3 |
106.4 |
2% |
|
Fuel oil |
59.3 |
37.5 |
-27% |
|
Total |
245.33 |
223.7 |
- 6% |
*Excluding consumption of premium gasoline. Iran consumed 1.4 billion liter of premium gasoline during last fiscal year, shares 2 percent of total liquid fuel consumption.
With regard to the data mentioned above, Iran, in fact replaced natural gas with fuel oil and kerosene during the first nine months of current fiscal year, which covers mostly the warm months, but regarding the sharp rise in housing gas consumption in winter, the Iranian government has no choice but to decrease gas delivery to power plants.
During last nine months, Iran delivered 41 bcm of gas to power plants, indicating a 10.1 bcm increase, but the country had planned to deliver only 42 bcm gas to this sector until the end of current fiscal year (March 21, 2015).
So, Iran's daily gas delivery to power plants will decrease significantly in winter and supplying the liquid fuels to electricity generation sector will soar. During last fiscal year, Iran consumed 28 billion liters of diesel and fuel oil, as well as 36 bcm of gas in power plants.
Gas shortage continues
Currently Iran produces 575 mcm/d of dry gas, of which 82 mcm/d is consumed in industry and 405 to 410 mcm/d (almost tripled compared to summer) in the housing sector. The gas consumption in the housing sector is expected to rise above 450 mcm/d this winter. Then, in fact Iran has only about 43 mcm/d of extra gas to deliver to other sectors.
The country also consumes about 19 mcm/d of compressed natural gas (CNG) and had to halt CNG production during several weeks of last winter to prevent gas shortage in housing sector. This fact increased the gasoline consumption level last winter significantly. Iran's total gasoline and premium gasoline consumption increased by 7 percent and 17 percent during last year compared to the previous year.
It's expected that Iran's fuel oil and gasoline consumption will increase significantly this winter and push the total liquid fuel consumption for the current fiscal year above last year's level. It's noticeable that 29 percent, 69 percent and 4 percent of Iran's diesel, fuel oil and kerosene respectively were consumed in power plants last year.
Edited by CN
Dalga Khatinoglu is an expert on Iran's energy sector, head of Trend Agency's Iran news service