Baku, Azerbaijan, June 1
By Dalga Khatinoglu – Trend:
Iran plans to increase its 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil product output to 3.1 mb/d by 2021.
It exported 290,000 b/d of fuel oil and gas oil during the last fiscal year (ended on March 20), but the country plans to double this figure in the current fiscal year by cutting liquid fuels supply to power plans.
Iran inaugurated the first phase of Persian Gulf Star Refinery with 120,000 gas condensate refining capacity to stop importing gasoline, but the 2nd and 3rd phases of this project, with each 120,000 b/d refining capacity, would become operational by next year.
Iran is also renewing six old refineries to increase gasoline production share in final distillates output, while Siraf Complex, Anahita and Bahman Geno refineries will add 480,000 b/d, 150,000 b/d and 300,000 b/d respectively to Iran’s refining capacity by 2021.
Currently, the share of fuel oil in final distillates output is about 24 percent in average, which is very high. After modernization of six refineries the figure is expected to reach 10 percent.
Miswin Mahesh, an oil analyst at Energy Aspects told Trend June 1 that there is a surplus of refined products in the market.
“Iran’s strategy is good for the country in that it will be able to refine its own oil and export a value added product rather than just raw material. However it will have to compete with other refined product exports,” he said.
According to him, currently the global gasoline demand is 25.2 mb/d, while the supply stands at 25.3 mb/d. “Global diesel demand is also 27.7 mb/d, while supply is 28.1 mb/d,” he added.
Energy Aspects estimates the OPEC and Non-OPEC crude oil supply at 32.5 mb/d and 59 mb/d respectively.
“NGLs/Condensates output also reached 7mb/d,” Mahesh said. He added that the total global supply stands at 98.5 mb/d, while the demand is 98.3 mb/d.
Iran currently produces 3.8 mb/d of crude oil and 0.6 mb/d of gas condensate and NGLs. It plans to increase its oil output to 4.7 mb/d by 2021, while the gas condensate output would reach 1 mb/d.
Dalga Khatinoglu is an expert on Iran's energy sector and head of Trend Agency's Iran news service