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Israel set for crucial vote which could decide fate of government

Israel Materials 24 June 2008 19:05 (UTC +04:00)

The fate of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's troubled government was hanging in the balance Tuesday, ahead of a crucial Knesset vote Wednesday which could precipitate early elections, reported dpa.

Two of Olmert's coalition partners, the 19-seat Labour Party and the ultra-Orthodox Shas faction, with 12 seats, have said they will vote in favour of the opposition-sponsored bill which calls for the dissolution of the Knesset.

With the support of Labour and Shas, the bill could win the backing of 69 of the 120 Knesset legislators.

Olmert has threatened to fire any minister who votes in favour of the motion. Should he carry out his threat, Labour and Shas will be expected to leave the coalition, leaving the premier at the helm of a minority government which could easily be toppled in a no- confidence vote, perhaps as soon as Monday next week.

Olmert's associates were making feverish efforts Tuesday to persuade Shas not to break coalition ranks.

The ultra-Orthodox faction, which draws its support mainly from low-income religious Israelis, is demanding an increase in child welfare payments. Olmert has offered instead a package of other benefits, but by Tuesday afternoon Shas was still refusing to compromise.

The bill up before the Knesset Wednesday is only a preliminary reading and would still have to pass through a Knesset committee and undergo three more votes before it becomes law.

It is possible it could be delayed in committee and not come to the Knesset for its final readings before the House recesses for its summer break on August 3.

This could buy Olmert more time, but would not solve the crisis.

While Labour Party leader Ehud Barak had intimated his party would only support the preliminary reading, this depriving it of a majority in the later legislative stages, his tactics might change if Olmert carries out his threat and fires ministers.

At the same time, Barak has also hinted that Labour might not support the bill if it looks as if it will not get a majority. While a majority of Labour legislator are in favour of the motion to dissolve the Knesset, there are dissenting voices in the party, which point out that Barak's support for the bill will almost certainly lead to new elections in which, according to the polls, Labour will be humiliated.

Barak, the current defence minister, precipitated the current crisis on May 28, when he demanded that Olmert remove himself from the day-to-day running of the country, arguing that a prime minister under investigation for alleged corruption could not give his full attention to the many problems facing the country.

Barak demanded that Olmert's Kadima party appoint a new leader, or else he would work for early elections.

Olmert refused refused to step down. He did, under pressure, authorise leadership primaries, but no date has been set for them.

Observers have pointed out that Olmert had several options should the vote go against him on Wednesday.

He could try and remain in charge of a minority government, although its existence would be increasingly precarious, dependant as it would be on support from outside the coalition which could not be guaranteed.

Alternatively, Olmert could let the early elections bill take its course, and remain at the head of a caretaker government until elections were held.

A third option would be for Olmert to resign the premiership, in which case President Shimon Peres could entrust another politician with the task of forming a new government.

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