Baku, Azerbaijan, June 6
By Rufiz Hafizoglu - Trend:
The parliamentary election to be held in Turkey June 7 is one of the most important elections in the history of modern Turkey. At least because, depending on the results of the election, each political party intends to change the country's fate in its own way.
Turkish authorities call this election as the "birthday" of new Turkey, since the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is confident of victory like all other political parties to take part in the parliamentary election.
In the case of winning the election, one of the goals of the Justice and Development Party is to adopt a new constitution and thereby switch from the parliamentary system to the presidential system with the method of voting in the parliament. But it is not ruled out that it won't be easy, since previously, the AKP couldn't achieve that. In this case, holding of the national referendum on this issue is not ruled out.
Another important event is that the ruling party is expected to abolish several ministries if it wins in the election. The remarks made by Turkey's current Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek prove that.
Moreover, in the case of gaining victory, the AKP is expected to make changes in the activities of Turkey's Intelligence Agency.
Turkish parliament adopted the amendments to the draft law on the activities of the country's intelligence service in April 2014. Currently, Turkey's intelligence service is an independent structure.
In accordance with the amendments, the activities of the intelligence service will also include fulfillment of the government's instructions aimed at ensuring the country's security.
Amendments to the following paragraphs were adopted: the cases against intelligence officers will only be considered by the Turkish Supreme Court; verdicts and decisions of the courts regarding intelligence officers will not be subject to revision; the family members of the Turkish intelligence service employees will be under the protection of the state as part of the fight against terrorism.
Given that if the ruling party wins the election, Turkey will become a presidential republic, we can say that the security structure will be under the full control of the president.
Moreover, serious changes can be expected in Turkey's foreign policy if the Justice and Development Party wins. Ankara will continue the policy of leadership in the Middle East as before.
What if the Justice and Development Party fails to achieve the expected results?
Earlier, Turkish media wrote that the AKP will win in the parliamentary election, while today, the possibility of creating a coalition government is the mostly discussed issue especially, after the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) announced the possibility of overcoming the 10-percent threshold to get into the parliament.
If the HDP succeeds to overcome this threshold, the AKP will have to content itself with 220 seats and won't be able to form a government by its own. In this case, it will have to form a coalition government with Republican People's Party (CHP), or the Nationalist Movement Party, or HDP, which is unlikely.
Turkey's political experience shows that the country has never benefited from creating a coalition government.
This suggests that currently, the only problem for the AKP is caused by HDP. By the way, Turkish authorities have already stated by HDP can lead Turkey to a territorial split.
Earlier, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Yalcin Akdogan said that if HDP overcomes 10-percent barrier, following the election, it will demand autonomy for the Kurdish citizens in Turkey's south-east. Moreover, earlier, the country's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu earlier said that each vote for HDP is a support to the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party.
A question arises: who created conditions for the current HDP (previously Peace and Democracy Party) to participate in the 2011 parliamentary election?
The AKP had no option other than creating these conditions for HDP which is currently considered by the authorities as the political wing of PKK. By taking this step, AKP that time managed to separate Kurds from PKK that was acting as the active defender of Kurds. But it wasn't expected that HDP can take a political revenge within four years.
This suggests that the parliamentary election to be held June 7 in Turkey will determine the fate of not only the political parties, but the whole country.
Rufiz Hafizoglu is the head of Trend Agency's Arabic news service, follow him on Twitter: @rhafizoglu