Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 11 / Trend E. Tariverdiyeva /
Certainly, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's statement that Iran has enriched uranium to 20 percent can be taken as a bluff. But the scenario of development of events in which Iran gradually completes several nuclear bombs is possible, President of Russia's Middle East Institute Yevgeny Satanovsky said.
"According to indirect data, now Iran gradually completes up to three copies of warheads on missiles. The last technical issues are solved," Satanovsky told Trend over phone from Moscow.
Iran has already enriched the first batch of uranium to 20 percent, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said, speaking at a meeting in Tehran to commemorate the 31-th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, IRINN TV channel reported.
On Sunday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave instructions to begin producing nuclear fuel, capable of feeding the research atomic reactor, RIA Novosti reported with reference to the Reuters news agency. Afterwards, Iran's Atomic Energy Organization director Akbar Salehi said that they will begin the process of enriching uranium to 20 percent on Feb. 9.
According to Satanovsky, most likely that Ahmadinejad was playing games with "Six" and the world community all the time, who yielded to his tricks with readiness. But the history shows that such leaders as Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khomeini, Hugo Chavez are not usually inclined to bluff, the expert said. No one doubts of the presence of nuclear weapons in North Korea. It is clear that Iran with rich reserves of gas and oil has more chances and opportunities to produce nuclear weapons, Satanovsky said.
According to Satanovsky, the fact that experts did not admit the technical level of Iran as sufficient to create nuclear weapons can be explained. "They have been engaged by their agencies and do not want to become alarmists. However, in reality, Iran is quite capable of producing nuclear weapons right now," he said.
Iran, producing modern equipment, including turbine blades for jet aircraft, and having received technologies from Pakistan through Abdul Qadeer Khan, under the patronage of the government of Benazir Bhutto, is more ready to produce nuclear weapons, than, for example, Libya or North Korea, which have almost completed their nuclear programs, experts said.
According to the scenario, perhaps, Iran will enter the regime of nuclear deterrence with Israel now, following the example of the Caribbean crisis, but Ahmadinejad does not want this, Satanovsky said.
"The United States are unlikely to wage war with Iran with the current administration, as the U.S. intelligence, of course, realizes that Iran is dangerous for neighboring countries, but not for the United States," Satanovsky said.
The United States and the West accused Iran of intending to develop nuclear weapons. Iran made it clear that the enrichment of uranium is carried out to provide atomic power stations with fuel. In 2006, Iran's nuclear dossier was sent to the UN Security Council by the IAEA Judges Council. So far, the UN Security Council adopted five resolutions to suspend the nuclear program of Iran. Three of them envisage economic sanctions against Iran.