Experts: Opposition in Georgia is unlikely to unite broadly to overthrow power
Azerbaijan, Baku, June 7 / Trend E. Tariverdiyeva /
Broad unification of the opposition, agreed by opposition leaders, in Georgia to overthrow the power is unlikely to happen, experts said.
"It is not necessary to wait for a broad coalition. But a coalition of mid-scale is likely to be formed by autumn", Georgian expert Ramaz Sakvarelidze told Trend.
Georgian opposition stated about the formation of a new coalition by autumn of this year to hold early parliamentary and presidential elections. Talks between the opposition leaders have already begun. Leaders are ex-speaker Nino Burjanadze, former presidential candidate Levan Gachechiladze, former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili, who is in France, former Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli.
However, experts doubt about creating a broad opposition in Georgia to overthrow the power. According to observers, the opposition's weakness became evident after the municipal elections May 31.
"The new opposition group is created to hold street rallies. But these rallies failed in April last year. Therefore, the society distracted its interests towards less radical forces - "Alliance for Georgia". But after its defeat in local elections, rallies may again become relevant, " Sakvarelidze said.
Current head of the city, candidate of the ruling party of Georgia "United National Movement" Gigi Ugulava won the elections of Tbilisi's mayor. He got 55.2 percent of votes.
Leader of the Alliance for Georgia Irakli Alasania ranked second with 19 percent of votes. The Christian Democratic Movement representative Giorgi Chanturia got 10,7 percent, Conservative Party leader Zviad Dzidziguri - 8,3 percent, leader of the Industrialist Party Gogi Topadze - 5,2 percent. The rest candidates for mayor did not get even one percent of votes.
Georgian expert Gia Khukhashvili thinks that any association around "eclectic idea", in this case - to defeat the government, will not bring results.
"This idea has been already expressed once and led people into the streets. But it is not justified. A similar idea is unlikely to bring results in future," he said, stressing that a tactical defeat of power has failed.
Khukhashvili thinks that the unification of the opposition should take place on the basis of ideological positions. "It will be useful for both the opposition and the state," he said.
Sakvarelidze said that the situation depends on what a new opposition group will propose to the society.
"But broad coalition is unlikely to be around the idea of a street protest, because there will be always opposition forces who prefer the way of the elections, but someone - a boycott, as Labourists. This will not create any widespread opposition groups," the expert said.
According to one of the leaders of the "Movement for Fair Georgia", Petre Mamradze, with regard to early elections, then people do not trust the opposition parties. There is no faith in the fact that the opposition will do something better for the country by coming to power, GeorgiaTimes reported.
"This is a result of the fact that a significant part of Georgian society resides in frustration after permanent and, in my opinion, inappropriate rallies conducted day and night. That time prospects were blocked and people were sitting in the so-called cells. Then we said that it will end very badly. Saakashvili's power will only get stronger both domestically and internationally," Mamradze said.
One can say that the country needs the elections. But none will conduct them. The opposition has no power to force the authorities to hold it at this stage, he said.
General Director of the Information and Analytical Center for the Study of socio-political processes in post-Soviet space at Moscow State University, Russian political analyst Alexei Vlasov said that the opposition, led by Nino Burjanadze has little chance to resist the incumbent president.
"When Saakashvili, who is certainly a charismatic politician, opposes Burjanadze's intelligent policy, the crowd will choose Saakashvili. So, Saakashvili has all the chances to change the constitution with the support of people, looking for ways to stay in power and keep all the levers, Vlasov said.
N. Kirtskhalia contributed to the article.