Macro Economic Forecasts as for First Half Year 2008 to be Corrected
Azerbaijan, Baku, 3 May / Trend corr. I.Khalilova / Sevinj Hasanova, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Azerbaijan, stated the Ministry of Economic Development was planning to re-consider macro economic indexes for 2008 on the results of the first half of year.
Hasanova stated that the Ministry refrains from the change of macro economic forecasts each quarter regarding to the recent prices and private changes in the global economy. We will re-consider the results every half year.
According to the preliminary accounts, the real growth rate of GDP is expected 20% (32.7bln) against the approved 18.2% (AZN 31.469bln) as for 2008. Increase is expected because of non-oil sector as for 2007. In 2007, the growth rate of GDP in non-oil sector totaled 8%, which lead to correction of the forecasts for 2008, Hasanova stated.
The real growth of GDP on non-oil sector is expected on the 11.6% rate against 10%.
"The price risk is taking into consideration for more efficient forecasts of the budget in macro economic forecasts," Hasanova stated.
Although the Azerbaijani oil is sold over $100, the Ministry of Economic Development is to stick to more conservative policy. Total volume of GDP on non-oil sector could exceed the index proposed in the new macro economic forecasts because of price differences.
As for 2008, the oil GDP is expected on the AZN 23.6bln rate if the oil prices will retain on the current rate. Initially, the figure was forecasted on AZN 18.6bln rate.
The GDP unit weight per capita to increase to $4,600.According to the Deputy Minister, the State investment program is being considered in parallel with the State Budget and the investment expenditure is expected to be increased by AZN 1.5bln.
On 2 May, official exchange rate totaled 0.829 AZN/USD.
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