Baku, Azerbaijan, June 20
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The global growth is expected to pick up to 2.9 percent in 2017 and peak at 3.1 percent in 2018, the highest rate since 2010, Fitch Ratings said in its latest Global Economic Outlook.
Fitch's chief economist Brian Coulton believes that faster growth this year reflects a synchronized improvement across both advanced and emerging market economies.
The biggest positive forecast revision since Fitch's March Global Economic Outlook is to the eurozone.
“Here, stronger incoming data, improving external demand and greater confidence that ECB QE (European Central Bank quantitative easing) is gaining traction on activity have resulted in an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points to the 2017 eurozone growth forecast, taking it to 2 percent,” said the report.
The changing impact of fiscal policy on growth in the advanced economies also remains an important factor behind the improved near-term outlook, according to Fitch Ratings.
Fiscal policy began to shift to a mild easing stance from 2016 in the US and the eurozone after several years of substantial fiscal tightening over 2011 to 2015. Fitch's analysis of multipliers suggests this shift has had a significant impact on growth dynamics in the advanced economies and seems likely to provide a further boost to growth over the next couple of years.
Demand growth in the larger emerging market economies is recovering strongly in 2017, according to the report.
“Both Brazil and Russia have recently seen a return to positive real GDP growth rates and the latest data suggest consumption and investment is starting to pick up in Russia,” said Fitch. “Following very large declines in aggregate demand in the aftermath of sharp falls in commodity prices in 2014, there is now room for demand to recover in large emerging market commodity producers.”
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