BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.9
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
The oil market deficit in 2021 is estimated at -0.8 mb/d, followed by a 2.3 mb/d surplus in 2022, Trend reports with reference to the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
“Oil market can absorb the increase in OPEC+ output towards the end of the year, but the surpluses building in 2022 reaffirm the importance of OPEC+ supply management. Despite the huge surpluses building in 2022, balances could still find support from either the supply or demand side of the market, or both, narrowing the surpluses and leading to a more balanced market,” said the OIES report.
The Institute believes that global demand outcomes in the remainder of 2021 and into 2022 will dictate OPEC+ output policy and in turn they will shape the outlook ahead.
“Optimistic scenarios include a high demand recovery case where global demand in 2022 grows by 4.1 mb/d, no Iranian deal and the reference OPEC+ return case. Pessimistic scenarios include a faster Iranian return, a low demand recovery case where growth in 2022 fails to exceed 3 mb/d and higher non-OPEC+ response. Even with a potential of a surplus in 2022, OECD stocks are not expected to reach anywhere near the elevated levels seen in 2020.”
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