BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct. 20
By Zeyni Jafarov - Trend:
Russia’s Gazprombank forecast a decline for the Azerbaijani economy in 2020 at the level of 3.5-4 percent, depending on oil prices and the continuation of the special quarantine regime, Trend reports citing the bank’s report.
According to the report, the observed dynamics of GDP for the first nine months of this year is in line with expectations and is natural in the context of a decline in oil prices (by 34.3 percent).
"For the scenario when the average price for Brent crude in the fourth quarter of 2020 will be around $40 per barrel, but restrictive measures will weaken, GDP is expected to decline by 3.5 percent by year-end. If the quarantine regime continues until the end of the year, the decline in GDP could be about 4 percent," noted the report.
"In September this year, the bank predicted that in 2020 Azerbaijan expects a decline in the economy at the level of 2.9 - 3.2 percent. However, thanks to earlier reforms, including the development of the non-oil sector, Azerbaijan's economy is more resilient to external shocks compared to the 2015 crisis. The economy in the fourth quarter of 2020 will be supported by the non-oil sector, which is gradually adapting to functioning under restrictive measures. This will facilitate to avoidance of an unnecessary slowdown in economic activity," said the report.
Moreover, Gazprombank expects Azerbaijan's budget spending to increase in the fourth quarter of 2020.
In 2019, Azerbaijan's GDP increased by 2.2 percent. State budget revenues in 2020 are envisaged in the amount of 24.1 billion manat ($14.1 billion), expenses - 27.5 billion manat ($16.1 billion). The budget deficit is planned at 3.4 billion manat ($2 billion) or 4.9 percent of GDP.
(1 USD = 1.7 manat on Oct. 20)
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