Kazakh parliamentary election does not promise surprises

Kazakh parliamentary election does not promise surprises

Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 21

By Elena Kosolapova - Trend:

The snap parliamentary election in Kazakhstan scheduled for March will not bring any surprises or scandals, Daniyar Ashimbayev, the Kazakh well-known political analyst, the head of the information-publishing project "Who is Who in Kazakhstan", said.

"The preparation for the election has been conducted for a long time," he told Trend Jan. 21. "It is hard to expect anything extraordinary."

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev scheduled the snap election of the members of the parliament (a lower chamber) for March 20. Earlier, the MPs appealed to the president with an initiative of the early dissolution of the parliament and snap election due to the aggravated economic situation in the country.

Ashimbayev said that the parties and the approximate parity of forces in the next sixth parliament will remain the same as in the fifth convocation.

"Only three parties in Kazakhstan have sufficient potential to enter the parliament," he said. "Among them are the Nur Otan presidential party, the Ak Zhol right-wing liberal party and the Communist People's Party of Kazakhstan."

"The balance of votes which they can get, in my opinion, would be about the same: 80 percent of the "Nur Otan" and within the 7-10 percent - "Akzhol" and Communist Party of Kazakhstan (CPK). The other parties do not have serious opportunities, unless the administrative resources will be included," the expert said.

The deputy corps is usually updated by 30-40 percent in Kazakhstan, and this year is likely to be the same, Ashimbayev noted.

Any reforms and extraordinary laws of the new parliament are not expected also, according to expert.

He reminded that the package of legislative measures to ensure the presidential program for the country's further development have been adopted by the previous parliament at the end of the last year and there are no urgent bills.

Behavior of the future Parliament's members will largely depend on the current situation, according to Ashimbayev.

"The main task of the future parliament is to provide social protection in controversial circumstances of 2016," said the expert.

Ashimbayev said that one shouldn't also expect significant progress in the transition of Kazakhstan from a presidential republic to a semi-presidential, which has already been discussed repeatedly. He noted that the election of the president not by public, but by the parliament, as suggested within the framework of this reform, will lead to a sharp decline in the legitimacy of the regime in Kazakhstan.

Regarding the strengthening of powers of parliament, the expert said that they are large enough, but aren't fully used.

Speaking about the reasons for early election, Ashimbayev noted that now it is not clear what circumstances and social situation will be at the end of the year, when the regular election had to take place, so the leadership of the country has gone ahead of the curve and decided to hold election in advance, while the economic situation in the country is relatively favorable.
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Follow the author on Twitter: @E_Kosolapova

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