BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept. 3
By Klavdiya Romakayeva - Trend:
The restoration of economic growth in 2020-2021 and systemic structural reforms in sectors of Uzbekistan's economy will be carried out in two stages, Trend reports with reference to the Center for Economic Research in Uzbekistan (CERR).
Stage 1 cover stabilization and recovery growth until the end of 2020.
With full implementation of the already planned and proposed measures, the expected indicators for 2020 are estimated as follows:
The growth of Gross Domestic Product - 2.2 percent (initial forecast 5.5 percent) industry - 3.4 percent (6.5 percent) agriculture - 3.3 percent (4 percent) investments - 1.2 percent (9.3 percent); services - 0.1 percent (5.8 percent); retail turnover, including catering - 3 percent (5.6 percent); export - (-5.7 percent, initial forecast 15.6 percent).
The calculations do not include the likelihood of re-introduction of quarantine in the republic and on a global scale.
Stage 2 - measures to continue systemic reforms that will ensure sustainable economic growth rates of 5.0-5.5 percent from 2021 with adjustments for the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic during 2020-2021.
The program was approved in order to eliminate the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the socio-economic development of the Republic of Uzbekistan, as well as restore investment and foreign economic activity of business entities, and create conditions for further deepening economic reforms.
The Center for Economic Research and Reforms, the State Committee of Uzbekistan on Statistics, the Ministry of Economic Development and Poverty, together with the World Bank, the Ministry for Support of Mahalla and Family have been instructed to evaluate statistical indicators in eight priority areas:
- economic development and efficiency;
- labor market efficiency;
- availability and quality of services in the social sphere;
- infrastructure development and availability;
- competitiveness and diversification of the economy;
- the quality of the business environment and the development of entrepreneurship;
- financial independence, development of the banking and financial sector;
- efficiency of work of local government bodies with citizens' appeals and availability of information.
An important condition for post-crisis recovery and sustainable economic development in the medium and long term is the formation of the foundations for curbing the growth of external debt, consistent improvement of conditions for increasing private and foreign direct investment.
This necessitates a consistent continuation of the initiated course of reforms to liberalize the economy (including the energy market), develop a competitive environment, improve the business climate, and reduce the share of the public sector in the economy, which will contribute to a steady increase in the inflow of foreign investment in the medium term.
The key measures in the field of macroeconomic policy and reform of market institutions are curbing the growth of external debt, monitoring the efficiency of the use of borrowed funds, as well as the effective use of external borrowings, directing them mainly to finance the budget deficit and infrastructure projects and social facilities.