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Iran faces dire consequences if JCPOA not revived, says analyst

Nuclear Program Materials 17 February 2024 10:35 (UTC +04:00)
Elnur Baghishov
Elnur Baghishov
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 17. Restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is crucial for Iran, said Iranian analyst on international affairs Reza Nasri, Trend reports.

Nasri warned that if the current situation continues in this form, other western countries participating in JCPOA (the UK, France and Germany) may also abandon the deal before UN Security Council Resolution No. 2231 expires in October 2025, and resume the pre-JCPOA sanctions regime, which includes six UN Security Council resolutions against Iran.

The expert also said that in this scenario, the new US administration will exploit the Security Council’s sanctions resolutions to block Iran’s oil exports to China by using domestic legal measures, and to intensify the pressure on Iran.

On January 16, 2016, Iran's nuclear program triggered the creation of the JCPOA between Iran and the P5+1 group (US, Russia, China, UK, France, and Germany).

However, on May 8, 2018, the US announced its withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the 5+1 group (Russia, China, the UK, France, the US, and Germany) and imposed new sanctions against Iran as of November 2018.

Over the past period, the sanctions have affected Iranian oil exports and more than 700 banks, companies, and individuals. The sanctions have resulted in the freezing of Iranian assets abroad.

In late 2020, the Iranian parliament decided to implement a strategic plan to tackle the sanctions, citing the non-implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed between Iran and six countries and the imposition of sanctions on Iran.

According to the decision of the Iranian parliament, as of February 23, Iran suspended the implementation of additional steps and an additional protocol provided for in the nuclear deal. As a result, the control mechanism of the IAEA decreased by 20–30 percent.

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