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Who is losing if current status quo in Syria changes?

Commentary Materials 23 January 2019 15:04 (UTC +04:00)
Someone does not want the withdrawal of US troops and is trying to create an atmosphere for President Trump to reconsider?
Who is losing if current status quo in Syria changes?

Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 23

By Azer Ahmadbayli – Trend:

Two terrorist attacks in Northern Syria (in Manbij and in the province of Hasaka) during the last several days, where American soldiers were killed and wounded, give rise to a strong impression that someone does not want the withdrawal of US troops and is trying to create an atmosphere for President Trump to reconsider his decision.

Who is losing, if the current status quo in Syria changes? Let’s take a closer look at the major players in Syria.

Russia is the main beneficiary of the process of early peace in Syria, as the war absorbs much energy and hinders Russian plans in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. With the withdrawal of the US military, one of the main irritants in the country will disappear; the tension will fall, giving way to accelerate peace initiatives, the creation of the constitutional Committee and presidential election.

Assad is also among the last who want the presence of Americans, especially now, when he feels confident and controls about 70% of Syria. Americans are a threat to the Assad regime. The US is extremely negative about Assad. Trump is very unpredictable. Once he ordered a missile strike on Syrian military targets. What if tomorrow he will decide to target the presidential residence or another place where Assad is? “No, let Americans rather leave.”

The withdrawal of the US troops, who supported the Kurdish terrorist organizations PYD/YPG, and supplied them with weapons, would be beneficial to Turkey too, as it will allow achieving its main goal – to clean up the Northern Syria from the PYD/YPG militants.

Jihadists from the "Islamic state" (IS) are also unlikely to object to the withdrawal of the US military from Syria. Until the United States became the focal point of the fighting against IS in the East of the country, the fighters of the IS took one town after another. Now, the chief coordinator’s leave may have IS think there is a chance to revive its power and resources in the area.

Iran has no friends in the Middle East, and almost no allies – only the Syrian regime and, conditionally, Iraq. The loss of Syria will mean for Iran a loss of buffer state and the so-called “Iranian land bridge”. Such outcome, as Iranian officials have repeatedly stated, would be a major threat to national interests of Islamic Republic.

Since the beginning of the Syrian war, no one remembers the clashes of Americans with Iranian or pro-Iranian forces. Militarily, presence of the American troops in Syria does not bother Tehran, but… their withdrawal, as I said, will reduce the degree of tension and intensify the peace process, as a result of which Syria can get a new government with a new president. This is what Tehran is concerned about most of all.

Assad has so much discredited himself as a political figure that even many Arab countries do not want to deal with him and take him back to the Arab League. Russia also stated in the past that it does not hang on to the figure of Assad, and it is the right of the Syrian people to decide whether he will remain in power.

Assad's departure could dramatically affect Iran's 80,000-strong contingent presence in Syria.

Last Saturday, Syria's opposition leader Nasr al-Hariri said peace efforts were "paralyzed" amid a lack of will from key international powers, Alaraby.co.uk reported. "Some parties from Astana [Russia, Turkey and Iran] who support the regime are continuing to obstruct the formation of the (constitutional) committee," he said.

Also, Iran is unlikely to be able to participate actively in the post-war reconstruction of Syria because of its own financial difficulties increasing from month to month.

In December 2018, Iranian oil production fell to its lowest level since 2015 as stated in the latest report of the International energy Agency (IEA). Crude oil exports fell below 1 million – to about 940,000 barrels per day, the report said.

In the coming months, the US Government plans to take a tougher stance against Iran. “We're going to continue our path to get to zero”, said Brian Hook, the US special representative for Iran, referring to the exports of Iranian oil.

This is perhaps one of the most serious threats (to Tehran), when someone tries to empty your wallet (budget) and is gradually, but succeeding.

The second reason why the withdrawal of the US troops from Syria does not suit Iran is the fear that they may be relocated to the north of Iraq, and these fears are not unfounded.

Earlier this month, regional media reported on the arrival of a number of American troops with military equipment at the K1 military base in Kirkuk.

A few days ago, US forces notified the Iranian-backed Iraqi Shiite militia "Hashd al-Shaabi" to leave several military fortifications east of Mosul in Northern Iraq, and gave them 24 hours, according to Kurdish media.

As local representatives of the Kurds said, at least five military bases are under the control of "Hashd al-Shaabi", and after their departure the US military intends to take them.

The “Hashd al-Shaabi” forces are reportedly preparing to clash with the US troops recently deployed in Kirkuk, according to Kurdish media outlets.

The US presence in Iran's backyard and pressure on pro-Iranian forces in Iraq is another serious threat for the “Iranian land bridge.”

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