Trend European Desk commentator Elmira Tariverdiyeva.
Observers and mediators do not get tired to speak, if not about break, then about significant advances in the resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Indeed, over the last year of Serzh Sargsyan's presidency, the negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan has intensified and even acquired a systematic nature - the two Presidents met four times for one year.
Moreover, silence between Turkey and Armenia over the last seventeen years was broken this year. There even was a possibility of opening the border between these countries, even through following preconditions.
Armenia's foreign policy can be divided into three periods: the policy of Levon Ter-Petrossian, Robert Kocharian and Serzh Sargsyan. Sargsyan began very actively to solve foreign policy issues, which was not made by previous presidents, immediately after coming to power.
Yerevan qualitatively and significantly changed its foreign policy, but is the Armenian political elite and establishment pleased? Alas, no.
Serzh Sargsyan is in a very precarious position within his own country and in his relations with the powerful global Armenian Diaspora. The Dashnaktsutsun party left the ruling coalition because of the disagreement with the policy of establishing diplomatic relations with Turkey. Dashnaktsutsun turned to opposition forces.
Given party's national focus and its close relationship with the international Armenian lobby, Dashnaktsutsun is a potentially serious opponent for the current government.
This party could be the last hope for the Armenian lobby to bring Armenia to desired line after the next presidential elections.
Dashnaktsutsun focused primarily on domestic political effect of this step, giving the party the revolutionary color of opposition forces, and rid it of responsibility for coalition's inconvenient consequences. The failure of Sargsyan's policy has been repeatedly linked with the Nagorno-Karabakh and Turkish processes by party representatives.
Armenians' dream to occupy others' territories has been run the risk during Sargsyan's presidency. The idea on a possible agreement seems blasphemy for the population. Major negotiators to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict - OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs - do not use the disposition of Armenian press. President's activity, as well as the activity of negotiators and representatives of Turkish political system has been criticized on the political scene in Armenia.
A dangerous situation occurred round the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, head of the Dashnaktsutsun Revolution Federation Parliamentary Group Vaan Ovannisyan said, the Mediamax reported.
"This situation has arisen because of our unreasonable policy towards Turkey. It is not a secret that one of the main preconditions for the restoration of Turkey's relations with Armenia is the subordination of Armenian interests to Azerbaijan's in Karabakh and forced Armenia to make assignments," Ovannisyan said.
If a real progress would be in the Karabakh conflict through signing of a basic document, then Armenia will face heated internal developments and perhaps even a political crisis that will focus to replace the leadership.
Not only the political elite, but also the establishment is not pleased with president's policy. Experts and observers are asking a timely question: What would happen if Turkey did decide to open the border with Armenia? The first thing that threatens to Armenia is that after opening of the notorious border with a fragile economic system, it will be subjected to instant and fully justified Turkish economic expansion
Using advanced oligarchic system in Armenia's economy, Turkey would be able to simply "buy" Armenian oligarchs that significantly undermine the national security of the country.
So whether President Sargsyan well to insist on improving the long-frozen relations between Armenia and a half of neighboring countries? The answer is not obvious, because strangely enough, and what would be beneficial for the country, alas, will not please the population.
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