Azerbaijan, Baku, May 26 / Trend , E.Tariverdiyeva/
Russia, of course, will seek to strengthen and expand its influence in the Caucasus, but it will not hardly to lead to new military actions in the region, experts believe.
"Russia strives for more influence in the Caucasus, but I do not think that the most powerful forces in Russia today want another military conflict in the region," American Expert on Georgia Henry Hale said.
The Georgian diplomats and politicians frequently say that the Kremlin wants to launch a military operation to strengthen its influence in the Caucasus.
The Georgian Foreign Ministry responded to the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry's official Andrei Nesterenko that Russia is interested to strengthen the "border with Abkhazia and South Ossetia" to avoid a possible destabilization.
On May 25, Director of the Georgian Foreign Ministry Political Department Zurab Kachakachishvili said today that a large number of Russian military and technology was deployed in the territories of Abkhazia and Samachablo (Tskhinvali region), and if the Russian side expects any destabilization, it is expected only from these armed units.
Russia wants a new war, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said in his interview which the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera published on 19 May, RIA Novosti reported.
"Russian wants one more war. We can also wait whether it can implement this. I do not think, but once they have crossed the border and the August invasion taught us to approach them seriously. They want to get rid of Georgia," the Georgian president said.
Observers believe that the Caucasus will remain a zone of the Russian influence for a long time, but this will not lead to another war in the region, primarily because Moscow does not want to complicate relations with the West.
Large-scale military operations were launched in South Ossetia on the night of Aug. 8. Georgian troops entered South Ossetia's capital Tskhinvali. Later Russian troops seized the town and drove troops back to Georgia. On Aug. 26, Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In response, Tbilisi broke the diplomatic relations with Moscow and announced two unrecognized republics as the occupied territories.
Hale said the Caucasus region will be a source of continued tensions in Western-Russian relations, but I do not think that this will move from the political to the military realm.
Hale believes Saakashvili has already been punished, from the Russian perspective, and any attempt actually to conquer territory in the Caucasus would be fraught with all kinds of risks. "It can cause confrontation with the West and potential destabilization of Russia's own border territories," Associate Professor of Political Science at George Washington University Henry Hale told Trend .
The expert does not expect Russia to use military force to expand its influence further. "While one can never say never, especially when there is a chance that the current economic crisis will deepen, neither side currently has an interest in such an armed confrontation," Hale said.
Another American Political Scientist Mark Katz said that Russia definitely seeks to expand its own position and weaken that of the U.S. in the South Caucasus. But, he said, while Moscow is aggressive, it is also cautious.
Katz said the Kremlin does not seek a direct confrontation with the West. "Instead, as with Georgia in August 2008, the Kremlin will await a moment when it sees itself in a strong position and in America in a weak one unable to respond," Professor of Policy at the U.S. George Mason University International Relations Department Mark Katz wrote to Trend in an email.
However, he believes, the U.S. will always be supported by the EU and "there is no question of the European Union doing very much in response to any forceful Russian move".
Katz believes the chronic problem that the Kremlin's foreign policy has suffered from is that it usually underestimates its opponents' and--even worse--over estimates its own strengths.
"Attempting to increase Russian influence in the South Caucasus may look foolish in the long run if the situation in the North Caucasus continues to deteriorate," Katz said.
Russia wants to gain the status of one of the major players of a multipolar world and is making every effort for this, Georgian Political Scientist Ghia Khukhashvili told Trend .
"The fact is that at present the world is undergoing the redistribution of influence and Russia's actions clearly indicate that Moscow will not give up to achieve its goal of recognition of its geo-political claims, which is testified with the last year's war," Khukhashvili said.
He believes Russia "will continue its confrontation with the West." "But I hope that this confrontation will take diplomatic and economic in nature and will not lead to military action," the expert said.
However, the Russian expert does not exclude military developments in the Caucasus.
"Possibility of resuming a large-scale military action is high," Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer said. "We are now in a period, when it is possible to resume hostilities at any time. At present troops of the opponents have not been separated," BBC Web site reported.
He said shooting can take place in the border areas, when the Russia is injured, but not the Ossetian border guards, and it can serve as a sufficient reason for the escalation.
He predicted that if Russia wants to consolidate the military success in the Caucasus, it will be done by October in 2009. The expert believes the Russian troops will need at least two months of "clean skies" for the use of aviation.
However, Felgenghauer said it will be impossible to solve the problem via demonstrating a military might. As the situation requires a political will from both sides and use of the experience of the past, he said.
"It is understandable what should be done to make ceasefire stable even in the absence of any political agreement," Felgenhauer said. "The zone must be demilitarized, opponents must be separated and peacekeeping forces must be applied. Without this, any incident can turn into an escalation."
N.Kirtzkhalia (Tbilisi) contributed to this article.