Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 4 / Trend E.Tariverdiyeva /
The situation in the Georgian region of Samtskhe-Javakheti, largely populated by the Armenians, can soon destabilize due to ongoing changes in the region, experts believe.
"After the Turkey- Armenia rapprochement, Georgia will not have an argument that the return of Meskhetian Turks will create new ethnic problems in the region," said Georgia's former economy minister, senior fellow at the Fund for Strategic and International Studies of Georgia, Professor Vladimir Papava. "However, in reality, the Armenians living in those territories [Samtskhe-Javakheti] do not want and fear the return of the Turks.
The Georgian authorities' policy may provoke the Armenians of Samtskhe-Javakheti to demand secession from Georgia, as Abkhazia and South Ossetia did, Sevak Artsruni, President of "Yerkir" Union of Public Organizations on Repatriation and Settlement told journalists on Nov.2, ARMENIA Today reported.
According to him, the population of Samtskhe-Javakheti do not want to separate from Georgia, but Georgia's current policy towards Armenians of the region leads to it.
Artsruni noted that the patience of the Armenians of Samtskhe-Javakheti can overflow and they can require respecting their rights by civilized means, as Abkhazia and Ossetia.
Artsruni believes the radical and short-sighted policy of the Georgian authorities could raise the question of secession by constitutional means or by more extreme solutions that are not excluded. He noted that in such cases, the fight begins peacefully but then becomes more aggressive.
According to experts, the geopolitical changes in the region, particularly normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations affect the situation in Samtskhe-Javakheti.
It looks as first sight that Armenian-Turkish rapprochement will not in any way affect Javahk, but it is not so Haykazun Alvrtsyan Head of the Western Armenians' Center said, PanArmenian reported.
Alvrtsyan said that, by opening border Armenian authorities will lose control of Javahk, and the Armenian populated region of Georgia will no longer enjoy Armenia's support in international tribunals.
"That will also be a moral-psychological blow to Armenians of Javahk," Alvrtsyan said.
Regarding the Armenian authorities, he said that the authorities are not interested in the settlement of the problem of Javahk.
"Issues related to Javakh were never included in Armenian Parliament's agenda." Besides, Georgian authorities always reacted to Javahk-Armenians' statements and always tried to avert any process contradicting their interests, Alvrtsyan said.
"I consider fair the opinion of many experts that in the future the development of the Armenian-Turkish relations can influence the situation in Javakh," said the General Director of the Information Analytical Center of Moscow State University, Professor of post-Soviet foreign countries department Alexey Vlasov said.
"But in what direction the position of Armenia will change is not yet clear, because, regardless the importance of the issue it is not is a priority for the country's leaders. A clear line will be determined in several months," Vlasov told Trend over the telephone.
According to Papava, if Armenia feels that the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh will be resolved in its favor, then some forces in the country will begin to provoke conflict in Samtskhe-Javakheti as well. This process should not be viewed as Georgia's domestic, but as a regional process and of course, the issue of Javakh should be considered in the context of the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation and the return of Meskhetian Turks to the territory where now the Armenians live, He said.
"At present, Georgia is in a very difficult position, because the biggest opponents of the return of Meskhetian Turks to this region are the Armenians who live there," Papava said.
If the Turkey- Armenia rapprochement happens completely, the Armenian communities living in Samtskhe-Javakheti should no longer oppose the return of Meskhetians, but things are different, and this may cause a wave of ethnic problems in the region, the expert said.
But Russian expert believes the problem of national minorities in Georgia is not only connected with the geopolitical changes that have occurred in the South Caucasus.
Georgia has internal problems connected with the enclaves inhabited by Armenians and Azerbaijanis, not densely inscribed in the social, economic and socio-cultural issues that should be decided by the government, Vlasov said.
"All the problems of national minorities in Georgia should not be connected only with the context of normalization of the Armenia - Turkey relations," he said.
According to him, recent statements on Armenia's territorial claims have sounded mostly by representatives of the Armenian Diaspora. The Diaspora's representatives are the "Voice" of the country's relations to its neighbors' lands, rather than the Armenians living within the country, he said.
"In addition, the Armenian government keeps silence, fearing that any word can affect the process of normalizing relations with Turkey. Now the Armenian president and his entourage will focus on how to avoid from direct answers to direct questions, because it is extremely disadvantageous to the Armenian authorities," said Vlasov.
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