Azerbaijan, Baku, May 23 / Trend A. Tagiyeva /
If Bashar al-Assad's regime falls in Syria, Tehran will lose such strategic partner as Damascus. It will weaken Iran's influence in the region. As a result, the situation will change in such countries as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Expert on the Middle East at the Lebanese University Ali Bakir said.
"The change of power in Syria will affect Iran's position by changing the situation in the whole region," he told Trend over phone from Beirut.
He said that the fall of Assad's regime in Syria may also lead to weakening of the threat of Shia crescent.
Jordan's King Abdullah II warned about the danger of "Shia crescent" in 2004. He meant spreading of Shia political activism from Iran and Iraq toward Syria, Lebanon and the Persian Gulf.
Bakir said that as a result of changing the regime in Syria, there will be major changes throughout the region.
"The change of regime in Syria will differ from that in Tunisia and Egypt," Bakir said.
He said that as opposed to the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia with a certain leader, representing the opposition's interests, there is no opposition leader in Syria. It is connected with the fact that the Syrian authorities conducted strict policy that did not allow the opposition to strengthen its position and determine a leader.
"Assad's policy restricted the activity of the opposition," he added.
The mass riots have begun in the Syrian city Dera'a from mid-March. The impetus for them was the arrest of a group of schoolchildren who had written the anti-government slogans on the walls. People appeared in the streets demanding to release the adolescents. The troops entered the city to suppress the anti-government protests. They used tanks and artillery to disperse mass demonstrations.
Later, the protest spread to several other regions of the country, particularly in the city of Latakia, Baniyas, Homs, Hama and some suburbs of Damascus. The demonstrators demanded to conduct political reforms and democratization of political life in the country.
Even after the government announced the program of broad reforms in Syria, opposition members' protests continue. In particular, the state of emergency, introduced since 1963, was cancelled in the country. It was one of the main demands of the opposition.
The constitutional provision is expected to be abolished soon. According to it, the ruling Arab Socialist Renaissance (Ba'ath) party is a leading and guiding force of the society.