BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 10. Azerbaijan and Armenia do a lot in peace talks without mediators, Olga Oliker, Program Director, Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group, said in an exclusive interview with Trend, as she visited Baku for research purposes.
“It's always an interesting phenomenon, whether outside actors can facilitate a peace process or not, and under what circumstances. The way that outside actors facilitate peace processes is if they can change the incentives of the parties to make peace or to make certain concessions by any party more appealing. If they're not able to offer that, then they don't really contribute that much. They can contribute a place to meet, they can act as go-betweens. I'm not saying these aren't important things, but they're not going to be decisive. And since we're living in a period of great tumult and change, the sorts of incentives that outside actors are able to bring to the South Caucasus, are changing,” she said.
Oliker pointed out that the willingness to use military power and military force is something Russia has traditionally brought to the table.
“Other countries have less appetite for that. But they are more likely, historically have been more likely to bring financial incentives to the table. Those are going to matter for some countries more than others. I think what has happened over the course of the last five years, COVID-19, the full-scale war in Ukraine, they've either in some cases created and in other cases exacerbated these shifts. I'm not saying there's no longer a role for mediators. I think there are still roles they play. But Azerbaijan and Armenia do a lot without them. The situation is changing. They have had enough incentives to start having these conversations between themselves and maybe what the outside actors bring or don't bring has become less relevant. But that's not necessarily always going to be the case,” said the program director.
She noted that at present, most of the big actors in European security see the South Caucasus on a tertiary priority level at best.
“Russia is busy with a war in Ukraine, which it sees as part of its effort to strike back at a U.S.-led West that it has seen as a threat for a very long time. NATO and EU member states see it as an existential threat to their own security. They're looking to each other and they're looking to the war in Ukraine. I think Türkiye is a little bit different in that. It does look to the South Caucasus more, but historically Türkiye has seen its own security first internal with the conflict with the PKK, which it has designated as a terrorist group and the EU and the United States and the other countries have as well. For it, a full-scale war in Ukraine is a danger. They don't like the idea of Russia succeeding. As for the South Caucasus, Türkiye sees real advantages from a peace and normalization process. But how all of this racks and stacks with their broader security view, that's shifting. It depends on who you talk to in Ankara. But certainly, they see it's higher on their priority level than it is for many of the countries in the EU,” added Oliker.
But, as she said, the knock-on effects are evident.
“Because of this preoccupation with other issues, there has been less attention to the South Caucasus. And when the attention does come, it's different, and perhaps there's less nervousness about what negative repercussions and negative incentives these countries can offer, how they might punish the countries of the region. There's certainly an interest in getting what positive things they can bring. But it's not clear that they're going to bring them or that they're interested.
I don't think there's much appetite in the EU for enlargement to this part of the world. Georgia did receive candidacy, but that is now frozen. Both Brussels and Tbilisi have made their separate decisions that this is not moving forward for the time being. I think what you're seeing, at least on the surface, is that the shifting European security order affects the situation in the South Caucasus more than the reverse, the situation in the South Caucasus affecting the European security order. But I would also say don't count this region out,” she explained.
Oliker believes that for Russia, trying to determine just what role it's going to play in the South Caucasus, this region will be important, as it defines its own future.
“And there are lessons that Moscow is drawing from its experience here. What those are, I am not yet certain. But it is going to affect how they interact further in the South Caucasus and elsewhere. For the EU, for the United States, I think what happens here can have an impact. It's too early to tell just how things will shake out. It's a remarkably uncertain moment in history that we are living in,” she concluded.
Follow the author on X: @Lyaman_Zeyn