BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 20. Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts Azerbaijan’s GDP growth at about 4 percent in 2022, ADB’s Chief Economist Albert Park told Trend.
“Azerbaijan has also benefited from high energy prices, which helped increase the country’s budget revenue, as well as its current account balance. We have upgraded our forecast for Azerbaijani economic growth for 2022. Now, we expect it at probably more than 4 percent this year, with a slightly lower forecast for 2023,” he said.
According to the chief economist, there have been some benefits for the countries of Central Asia and South Caucasus on the back of the ongoing geopolitical developments, due to remittances and capital moving from Russia to Azerbaijan, Georgia, and others.
“One thing that we know is happening is that, due to the sanctions imposed on Russia, trade flows have moved south. So, that is an opportunity. Another opportunity concerns the agreement between Azerbaijan and the EU to double gas supplies, which is a positive development for Azerbaijan,” Park explained.
He said the ADB expects energy prices and inflation in most regions to remain high in 2022 and moderate somewhat next year, partly due to lower demand given slower global growth.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s inflation rate is forecast to be in the double digits this year, he added.
“Many central banks have an inflation target. So, for instance, inflation in Azerbaijan right now is probably above what the central bank would like to see. At the same time, central banks have to analyze carefully the sources of inflation and balance the need to control inflation with maintaining the economic recovery,” he said.
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