BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 13. In 2023, global oil demand is projected to increase by 2.2 mb/d year-on-year, reaching an average of 102.1 mb/d - a new record-high, Trend reports.
The forecast has been revised down by 220,000 b/d due to a worsening global economic outlook, which particularly affects OECD economies.
According to the estimations of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the majority of this growth, over 90 percent, is expected to come from non-OECD countries, with China leading the way with a contribution of 1.6 mb/d.
In particular. demand in the OECD, especially in Europe, is suffering due to a worsening decline in manufacturing. It is anticipated that OECD Europe's demand will decline for four consecutive quarters, from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2023.
The disparity between the two regions will become even more evident in 2024, the IEA says. As OECD demand starts to decline structurally by 270,000 b/d year-on-year, non-OECD consumption will resume its stronger pre-pandemic trend, with a growth of 1.4 mb/d year-on-year.
On the other hand, the forecast for global demand growth in 2024 has been revised upward by 290,000 b/d to 1.1 mb/d. This increase is primarily attributed to higher gasoil usage driven by improved prospects for China and a more positive long-term economic outlook.