BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 15. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that Russia's crude oil production will average around 9.1 mb/d in the second quarter of 2024, representing a decrease of 300,000 b/d compared to the first quarter and 460,000 b/d below 2023 levels, Trend reports.
According to the agency, Russian crude oil output remained stable at 9.42 mb/d in March. When considering crude, condensates, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), the total supply reached 10.9 mb/d.
For the second quarter, Russia's pledged OPEC+ production cut averages 410,000 b/d, the IEA noted. These output reductions align with seasonal refinery maintenance, which has been compounded by Ukrainian drone attacks, leading many refineries to reduce operations.
Moscow had committed to reducing oil exports by 500,000 b/d from January to March. However, starting this month, Russia plans to gradually phase out these export restrictions as part of its voluntary reduction of 471,000 b/d for the second quarter of 2024.
To achieve this, Russia aims to decrease exports by 121,000 b/d in April and reduce production by 350,000 b/d. In May, export cuts will be smaller at 71,000 b/d, while production will decrease by a higher 400,000 b/d. By June, the entire reduction will come from production. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that Russian oil companies will adjust their output proportionally based on their share of the country's total oil production.