IMF changes economic growth forecast of Azerbaijan until 2020
Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct.8
By Azad Hasanli, Maksim Tsurkov - Trend:
International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts GDP growth in Azerbaijan by 4.5 percent in 2014 and 4.3 percent in 2015, said the updated report on the prospects for the world economy World Economic Outlook, published on the foundation's Web site Oct.8.
GDP growth in Azerbaijan was predicted at 5 percent in 2014 and 4.6 percent in 2015, according to a previous forecast of the fund, released in June this year.
The economic growth in Azerbaijan is expected to reach 4.2 percent in 2019, according to IMF estimates. In 2016, GDP growth was predicted at 3.48 percent, in 2017 - 3.22 percent, in 2018 - 3.98 percent, and in 2019 - 4.23 percent, according to the June report.
In addition, Russia's GDP growth in 2014 and 2015 is expected to reach 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, in Armenia - 3.2 percent and 3.5 percent, in Belarus - 0.9 percent and 1, 5 percent, in Moldova - 1.8 percent and 3.5 percent. In Ukraine, a 6.5 percent decline of GDP is expected this year, and an increase of 1 percent in 2015.
The decline of economic growth in CIS countries that export oil and gas in 2014-2015 is due to the fact that high energy prices only partially offset the impact of the recession in Russia, according to the report.
"Given the geopolitical tensions in the region, the sanctions against Russia and structural changes in the Ukraine, the CIS economy is facing serious challenges," the report said.
Fund analysts expect lower rate of overall GDP growth in the CIS countries from 2.2 percent in 2013 to 0.8 percent this year, and in 2015 it is expected to increase to 1.6 percent.
In 2014, the real GDP growth in Azerbaijan is expected to reach 5.2 percent, according to the concept of socio-economic development of the country, prepared by the ministry of economy and industry. In 2015, GDP is predicted at 59.4 billion AZN (an increase of 5.8 percent).
The Asian development bank forecasts 5 and 4.8 percent GDP growth in Azerbaijan in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
The World Bank forecasts the country's economy to grow by 5.2 percent in 2014, and 4.1 percent in 2015.
The official exchange rate for October 8 is 0,7843 AZN / USD.