Baku, Azerbaijan, Feb.2
By Temkin Jafarov, Fatih Karimov - Trend:
Iran's Economy and Finance Minister says that internal entities release more realistic estimations about the country's economic performance than international bodies.
The Economy and Finance Minister Ali Tayebnia told Trend Jan.29 that "we predict an economic growth rate of 3 to 4 percent for the next fiscal year". The figure announced by the Iranian minister is at least 5 times more than optimistic estimations released by international bodies.
Iran's new fiscal year will start on March 21.
The latest report released by the World Bank, published Jan.29 estimated that Iran's GDP growth would be zero without achieving a comprehensive nuclear deal in 2015.
The International Monetary Fund also estimated last week that Iran's GDP growth would decrease from 3 percent in 2014 to 0.6 percent in 2015.
The Central Bank as well as Statistic Center of Iran hasn't released any estimation for the current fiscal year's economic performance, but the latest statistics covering spring and summer say that Iran's GDP growth stood at 4 percent in first half of the current fiscal year (March 21, 2014 to September 22, 2014). The World Bank estimated Iran's GDP growth for 2014 at two times less than the IMF's 1.5 percent.
Tayebnia said, "We have published statistics about the first half of the year. The growth rate was 4 percent in the first half of the fiscal year. "The figure corresponding to the third quarter has not been yet released. There is a difference between statistics of the IMF and our statistics. We calculate the figure through measuring the volume of activities exactly. So, the figure which is announced is highly precise. The figure which is announced by the IMF is roughly estimated".
According to the Iranian minister, "naturally, estimations (by foreign entities) are associated with errors and inaccuracies. So, the figures which are calculated by the Central Bank and the Statistical Center are usually more accurate. Of course, the IMF's estimation indicates that we are emerging from recession and the economic growth rate is positive."
We predict an economic growth rate of 3 to 4 percent for the next fiscal year.
According to the World Bank's report, as oil makes up about 80 percent of Iran's total export earnings and 50 to 60 percent of government revenues, the economy could grow substantially if Iran and P5+1 will not reach a nuclear deal. "With no deal, cheap oil could mean a 60 percent drop in fiscal revenues, down to $23.7 billion in 2015 from its peak of $120 billion in 2011/12. Under this scenario, a loss of about 20 percent of GDP would be expected, bringing GDP growth down to zero (from the previous year's 1.5 percent), and the economy would continue to shrink. This will put tremendous pressure on inflation, unemployment, the fiscal deficit and the currency".
Iran and P5+1 sealed an interim deal in Geneva on November 24,2013 to pave the way for the full resolution of the decade-old dispute over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.
The Geneva deal took effect on January 20, 2014 and expired on July 20, 2014.
However, the two sides have agreed to extend their talks two times, this time until by June 30, 2015.