Uzbekistan may face prices increase for major consumer goods

Uzbekistan may face prices increase for major consumer goods

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Aug. 4

By Ilkin Seyfaddini - Trend:

Continued quarantine restrictions in Uzbekistan could lead to higher prices for major consumer goods, Trend reports citing Central Bank of Uzbekistan.

In Central Bank's monetary policy review for second quarter of 2020, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan presented the inflation forecast and the main drivers of price decline, as well as the risks and uncertainties that could affect the inflationary environment.

Given current economic situation and the degree of uncertainty amid the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, the bank maintains its inflation forecast for 2020 at 11-12.5 percent. At the same time, the Central Bank together with the Government will continue to take necessary measures to achieve constant inflation target of five percent by 2023.

The upward trend in core inflation (up from 12.7 percent in March 2020 to 13.8 percent in June 2020) during the second quarter demonstrates the persistence of inflationary pressures on the economy, the review said.

It is noted that a faster growth of core inflation, as opposed to general inflation, signals a strengthening of monetary factors of inflation.

“Preserving high rates of growth of lending to the economy (by 18.2 percent in the first half of 2020), the dynamics of increasing money supply (by 12.3 percent) and expansion of the consolidated budget deficit by the end of 2020 (by 8.4 trillion soum - $818.2 million at the end of the first half of 2020) will help curb the rate of inflation reduction,” the review said.

According to the calculations of Central Bank, the persistence of the negative GDP gap during 2020 and in subsequent years will contribute to the formation of disinflationary environment in Uzbek economy.

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Follow author on Twitter: @seyfaddini

Сохранение ограничений на передвижение и другие ограничения в случае продления карантина в Узбекистане могут вызвать повышение цен на основные потребительские товары, сообщает Trend со ссылкой на обзор Центрального Банка Узбекистана.

Центральный банк Узбекистана в обзоре денежно-кредитной политики за второй квартал представил прогноз инфляции и основные факторы снижения цен, а также указал на риски и неопределенности, которые могут повлиять на инфляционный фон.

По прогнозу регулятора, до конца года инфляция будет находиться вблизи траектории целевого показателя. При этом ЦБ совместно с правительством продолжит предпринимать необходимые меры для достижения постоянной цели по инфляции на уровне пяти процентов к 2023 году.

Учитывая складывающуюся ситуацию в экономике и степень неопределенности на фоне продолжающейся пандемии, банк сохраняет прогноз инфляции на конец 2020 года на уровне 11−12,5 процента.

Повышательный тренд базовой инфляции (увеличение с 12,7 процента в марте до 13,8 процента в июне) на протяжении второго квартала демонстрирует сохранение проинфляционных факторов в экономике, говорится в обзоре.

Отмечается, что более быстрый рост показателя базовой инфляции в отличие от общей инфляции сигнализирует об усилении монетарных факторов инфляции.

Сохранение высоких темпов роста кредитования экономики (за первое полугодие на 18,2 процента), динамики увеличения денежной массы (на 12,3 процента) и расширение дефицита консолидированного бюджета к концу года (по итогам первого полугодия — 8,4 триллиона сумов) будут способствовать сдерживанию темпов снижения уровня инфляции.

При этом к концу года ожидается снижение влияния цен энергоресурсов на инфляцию после исчерпания в третьем квартале эффектов прошлогоднего повышения цен. В результате регулируемые цены будут способствовать замедлению общего роста цен, считают в Центробанке.

Согласно расчетам, сохранение отрицательного разрыва ВВП в течение года и в последующие годы в определенной степени поспособствует формированию дезинфляционной среды в экономике.

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