World oil supplies to be stretched to end of 2011

Oil&Gas Materials 14 November 2011 18:02 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 14 / Trend A.Badalova /

World oil supplies will rise by 1.1 mln bpd to 89.3 mln bpd in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to 88.2 mln bpd in the third quarter, analysts at the major U.S. investment bank JP Morgan predict.

According to the analysts' monthly oil report, Libya's supply recovery is expected to continue, but alongside seasonally strong winter demand will likely leave the supply chain stretched to the end of the year.

Despite an improved OPEC supply picture, non-OPEC supply is seen contracting in 2011, analysts believe.

Analysts forecast global oil supply to increase by 1.3 mln bpd to 89.8 mln bpd in 2012 and to 91.1 mln bpd in 2013.

According to analysts' forecasts, OPEC production will rise to 30 mln bpd in 2012 and 30.9 mln bpd in 2013. In the fourth quarter of 2011 production is expected at 30.1 mln bpd, which is by 0.6 mln bpd more than the previously predicted figures. The increase reflects both a combination of stronger output potential from a number of countries, most notably Libya, Nigeria and Angola, and a small upward revision to demand in the quarter.

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to contract by around 200,000 bpd in 2011. But with seasonal maintenance out of the way and most of the short-term problems resolved, we see a substantial 0.6 mln bpd supply increase in the fourth quarter 2011.

In total, non-OPEC production estimates are lowered, by 0.3 mln bpd for the fourth quarter of 2011 and 0.2 mln bpd for 2012 and 2013.

Analysts remained global oil demand largely unchanged, with 2011 growth revised marginally down from 0.8 mln bpd to 0.7 mln bpd. Analysts forecast world oil demand to rise by 1.1 mln bpd to 89.6 mln bpd in 2012 and by 1.4 mln bpd to 91 mln bpd in 2013.