WB ups oil demand forecast
Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct. 21
By Elena Kosolapova – Trend:
The World Bank increased its forecast for oil demand in 2016 and 2017.
World oil demand for 2016 is projected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (1.3 percent) to an average of 96.3 mb/d, the bank said in its Commodity Markets Outlook, published in Oct.
In its previous report published in July the World Bank forecasted oil demand to an average of 96.1 million barrels per day.
In the new Commodity Markets Outlook, oil demand in the countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is projected to rise by 0.1 mb/d, with increases in Europe offsetting declines elsewhere. Non-OECD oil demand is projected to rise by 1.1mb/d (2.3 percent), led by increases in China and India but at the slowest pace since 2009.
In 2017, global demand growth is expected to rise by 1.2 mb/d (1.3 percent), with most of the growth projected outside the OECD, and a small increase in North America.
In the Commodity Markets Outlook published in July, the global oil demand was expected at 96.1 mb/d – similar with 2016 demand.
According to the WB data, world oil demand expanded by 1.5 mb/d (1.6 percent) year-on-year in the 1Q2016, but only 1.3 mb/d (1.4 percent) in 2Q2016. The slowdown occurred in both OECD and non-OECD regions. Demand growth is estimated to have slowed further to 0.8 mb/d (0.8 percent) in the third quarter, with all of the reduction in the OECD.
Non-OECD oil demand growth began the year rising 1.4 mb/d, or 3 percent, in 1Q2016 , but slowed to around 0.9 mb/d in the second and third quarters, the Commodity Markets Outlook said. Much of the recent weakness was in East Asia, with China recording little growth in the third quarter due to slowing industrial use and other temporary factors, such as heavy flooding that impeded transportation. India’s demand remained robust, rising 0.3 mb/d, or 8 percent, year-to-date.
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