BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 30
Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
If the US sanctions against Iran remain in force, the total loss of revenues from Iran's crude oil sales will be about $613.1 billion, which corresponds to a total fall in volume by 1.210 million metric tons (down 2.0 MMb/d on average) over the period 2019-30, Trend reports with reference to IHS Markit.
“We further observe some crude oil trade rerouting from Iran to other countries. Due to the existing trade relationships, we expect the largest beneficiaries to be those countries that have increased supply of crude oil to Iran's trade partners after the sanctions were imposed,” the company said in its analysis.
Based on the monthly IHS Markit Global Trade Atlas data, the compensation factor (balancing imports from Iran with crude oil supplies from other countries) was, on average, 12.2 percent in terms of volume in 2019 for Iran's trade partners.
“Saudi Arabia and the United States can benefit the most from the trade re-allocation. These two countries are predicted to be responsible for one-fourth (with a share of 24.9 percent) of the total crude oil imports compensation from Iran in volume terms through 2030,” the company said.
The United States sanctions recently imposed on Iranian crude oil exports were introduced in two waves. The first wave in November 2018, when imports of oil from Iran were banned, with some temporary exemptions granted to countries such as China, India, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey, to ensure a well-supplied oil market. The second wave in May 2019, when the sanctions against Iran were tightened and the ban on Iranian crude oil imports was introduced for all countries without any exemptions.
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