BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 4. OECD Europe’s natural gas demand is forecast to decline by 10 percent (or 54 bcm) in 2022, its steepest decline in history, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“This represents a further downward revision compared to our previous forecast in Q3 2022. It reflects the expectation of higher gas prices and the European Union’s ambition to reduce the bloc’s gas consumption by 15 percent between August 2022 and March 2023 compared to its five-year average. Gas burn in the power sector is expected to decline by close to 3 percent in 2022, while industrial gas demand is foreseen to drop by 20 percent.
Assuming average weather conditions, gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors is expected to remain below 2021 levels. In 2023 OECD Europe’s demand is forecast to decline by 4 percent amid high prices. Further potential disruption to the supply of Russian gas provides additional downside risk to this outlook,” reads the IEA report.
The report reveals that natural gas demand in OECD Europe fell by close to 10 percent y-o-y in the first eight months of 2022 and by an estimated 9 percent y-o-y in Q3. This was driven by milder temperatures in Q1-2 and record high gas prices weighing on gas use in both the industrial and power sectors.
“Distribution network-related demand, most of which is associated with the residential and commercial sectors, fell by over 12 percent y-o-y in the first eight months of 2022. Milder winter and spring temperatures reduced space heating requirements and depressed gas demand. The decline was particularly steep in Q2, when residential and commercial demand fell by over 20 percent. Distribution network-related demand decreased by an estimated 15 percent in Q3, suggesting that record high gas prices have prompted energy saving measures across the residential and commercial sectors and in small-scale industries.”
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