BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 28. Global oil demand growth is downgraded to 1.8 mb/d from 2.2 mb/d in 2022 and to 1.7 mb/d from 2.1 mb/d in 2023, Trend reports October 28 with reference to the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
“The largest downward revisions in 2022 are stemming from China associated with H2 and a later than previously expected end to COVID restrictions that pushed Chinese demand growth into a steeper contraction by -460,000 b/d y/y, compared to -100,000 b/d forecast previously,” reads the latest OIES report.
The Institute analysts note that in 2023, downgrades in OECD demand growth (-200,000 b/d) and further downward revisions in Chinese demand growth (-150,000 b/d) are weighing to the demand outlook.
“Global demand is now expected to contract y/y in the coming two quarters before returning to growth from Q2 2023-onwards. Risks to oil demand growth are firmly tilted to the downside as the duration and extent of the ongoing macro pressures continue to weigh on the outlook. The range of uncertainty to the demand growth outlook in 2023 now ranges between 500,000 b/d and 1.9 mb/d, with OECD demand under the recession case projected to contract by -600,000 b/d and non-OECD demand downgraded by 300,000 b/d to 1.1 mb/d.”
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