BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 1. Hydrogen demand growth pace is expected to slow over the coming decade, Trend reports with reference to Fitch Solutions.
Fitch Solutions predicts that the hydrogen demand in refining will grow by 6.4mtpa, standing at 47.8mtpa in 2032.
“But while we put the annual average rate of growth at 1.8 percent over the five years to 2027, we see it decelerating to just 1.1 percent over the following five years,” reads the latest report issued by the company.
The report reveals a number of factors, including the declining energy intensity of GDP, growing transport electrification and a switch to low-carbon energies, all of which will dent global oil consumption.
These trends will mostly be reflected in developed markets (DM), where Fitch Solutions expects the oil demand to face structural and deepening decline from 2025, decreasing by 2.85mn b/d from there on to the end of the 10-year forecast period.
“Many refineries in Western Europe, North America and developed Asia have suffered from a combination of weakened domestic demand pools, ageing downstream assets and cost competitiveness issues, forcing a number of closures over the past decade and threatening further shut-ins going forward.
Higher relative demand for light-end products, such as petrochemical feedstocks, and steep cuts to sulphur limits have helped cushion hydroprocessing capacity from these broader market trends. However, the outlook on the refining sector in these regions is generally poor and we see limited scope for further investments in either hydrocrackers or hydrotreaters,” reads the report.
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