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Dynamics of changes in some economic segments

Analysis Materials 5 February 2009 10:02 (UTC +04:00)

Oil market
On Jan. 26-30, the average price on Azeri Light CIF Augusta exported from Azerbaijan via the Ceyhan and Batumi ports was $47.3 per barrel, or $1.96 more than the previous price.
The maximum price was $50.28 per barrel. The minimum price was $45.64.
Azeri Light's density is 34.6 degrees API with a 0.14-percent sulfur content.
The average price on Urals (Ex-Novo) exported from Azerbaijan via the Novorossiysk port was $41.65 per barrel, or $1.04 more than the previous price.
The maximum price was $44.81 per barrel and the minimum - $39.9.
Urals' density is 32 degrees API with the sulfur content up to 1.3 percent.
The oil grade's specifications vary when sold depending on its high/low-quality content.
The average price on Brent Dated was $43.87 per barrel, or $0.97 less than the previous price.   
The maximum price was $47.1 per barrel and the minimum - $42.08.
Brent Dated's density is 38.3 degrees API with sulfur content of 0.36 percent.
Prices on oil futures dropped considerably earlier this week. The results of deals on oil contracts for the coming delivery month as of Feb. are as follows:

- Official price of Light and Sweet Crude Oil futures fell 1 dollar 60 cents (-3.8 percent) on New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in New York and reached $40.08 per barrel (all time low indicator for two weeks). Prices on deals were $39.83-$42.31 per barrel during the session. Oil quotations fell below $40 per barrel for the first time since Jan. 20.

- Official price of IPE Brent Crude (March) fell 2 dollars and 6 cents (-4.5 percent) on InterContinental Exchange Futures Europe (IСE Futures Europe) in London and reached $43.82 per barrel (all time low indicator since four trade days). Prices on deals were $43.77-$46.56 per barrel during the session. Oil quotations fell below $44 per barrel for the first time since Jan. 28, RBK reported.

Oil futures continued to fall due to fears for further fall in demand for energy sources in 2009 as well which was suggested by fresh macroeconomic information from the U.S., largest oil producer all over the world. In Dec. 2008, the U.S. consumer expenditures reduced 1 percent from last month. This indicator has dropped for six times for the last 7 months.

Meantime, index of business activity of ISM (manufacturing) in the U.S. increased from 32.9 to 35.6 points in Jan. 2009 compared to Dec. 2008. In first month of 2009, the indicator went up significantly than it experts expected. However, it was lower than the one in Jan. 2008.

On Feb. 2, price on WTI on NYMEX fell more than price on Brent. Record volume of oil reserves in Cushing terminal in Oklahoma contributed to it. On Jan, 23, oil reserves in terminal meant for calculations on NYMEX deals reached new historical record - 33.5 million per barrel.

Currency market

Last week the official rate of the manat against the US dollar, set by the National Bank of Azerbaijan, dropped 0.0015 points or 0.15 percent. The average rate was established at 0. 0.80546 manat to 1 U.S. dollar. Last week the maximum rate of the US dollar compared to manat was established on Jan. 30 (0. 8067 manat to 1 U.S. dollar) and minimum on Jan. 27-28 (0.8048 manat to 1 U.S. dollar).
As a result of last week's exchange rate of the Azerbaijani manat to the U.S. dollar, established based on results from the Baku Inter-bank Currency Exchange (BICEX), decreased by 0.0004 points (0.04 percent). The average rate was fixed at 0.80546 to 1 U.S. dollar. Last week the maximum rate of the US dollar against the manat was established Jan. 29-30 (0. 8057 manat to 1 U.S. dollar) and minimum Jan. 26-28 (0. 8053 manat to 1 U.S. dollar).
Deals concluded last week at BEST with transition to currency (T+0) comprised: deals were not concluded on Jan. 26 and 27 and the rate remained unchanged - 0.8053 manat to 1 U.S. dollar, Jan. 28, $1.41 million with the average sustained rate of 0. 8053 manat to 1 U.S. dollar, on Jan. 29 $1.9 million with the average sustained rate of 0. 8057 manat to 1 U.S. dollar and on Jan. 30 $0.56 million with the average sustained rate of 0. 8057 manat to 1 U.S. dollar.
No deal was concluded with USD/AZN T+1, T+2 and SWAP_USD/AZN due to an absence of appeals by dealers. Appeals were not received on RUB/AZN and EUR/AZN (Ň+1, Ň+2).

Market of privatization shares

Last week the price of the privatization vouchers dramatically increased by 67 percent. From Jan. 26 the price of vouchers increased from 14-15 manat to 25-26 manat. The purchase of vouchers was implemented by 25 manat, and sale - 26 manat. On Jan. 30, price of a privatization voucher decreased by 1 manat.

Such changes in the privatization vouchers market are due to intensified privatization of state enterprises, particularly closed subscription for discount sale of 15 percent to the personnel in every enterprise. Another reason for rising prices is speculative factor on the black market of vouchers.
The validity period of the vouchers will expire on Jan. 1 2010.

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