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Dynamics of changes in some economic segments

Analysis Materials 26 February 2009 12:02 (UTC +04:00)

Oil market

On Feb. 16-20, the average price on Azeri Light CIF Augusta exported from Azerbaijan via the Ceyhan and Batumi ports was $42.38per barrel, or $4.45 less than the previous price.

The maximum price was $44.77per barrel. The minimum price was $41.13. 

Azeri Light's density is 34.6 degrees API with a 0.14-percent sulfur content.

The average price on Urals (Ex-Novo) exported from Azerbaijan via the Novorossiysk port was $38.71per barrel, or $4.46 less than the previous price. 

The maximum price was $41.12per barrel and the minimum - $37.46.

Urals' density is 32 degrees API with a sulfur content up to 1.3 percent.

The oil grade's specifications vary when sold depending on its high/low-quality content.

The average price on Brent Dated was $40.76per barrel, or $4.13less than the previous price.    

The maximum price was $43.15per barrel and the minimum - $39.67.

Brent Dated's density is 38.3 degrees API with a sulfur content of 0.36 percent.  

As a result of trades on Feb. 17, the oil prices for the near months of delivery reduced on ICE and NYMEX. The April contract for Brent Crude on InterContinental Exchange in London dropped $2.25 to $41.03 per barrel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the prices for Light Sweet Crude futures with March delivery declined $2.58 to $34.93.

Oil prices dropped on Feb. 23 to the lowest level over the last three commercial days. Since the beginning of this week, the sale of oil futures continued due to the expectations on deepening of the economic crisis in the USA and other countries of OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Thus, according to the forecasts of the experts of the National Association for Business Economics, the GDP of the USA in 2009 can decline 1.9% more, and possibly 2.9%.

The drop in the shares of the industrial companies contributed to the reduction in the oil prices on Feb. 23. Thus, the index of Dow Jones on the trades on Feb. 23 fell 3.4%, and the index of the wide market S&P 500 - 3.5%. However, on the same day, the rate of the American dollar considerably rose in relevant to the leading world currencies, except British pound, which additionally weakened the interest in the purchases of oil futures and other raw materials, nominated in the currency of the USA.

Thus, Dollar Index (spot), which reflects changes in the exchange rate of the American dollar in relevant to the basket of six leading world currencies, increased 0.9% and reached 87.240 points on Feb. 23.

As a result of last week, the standard Brent oil price on IСE Futures Europe lost $2.92 per barrel or 6.5%, and the price of WTI (Light Sweet) on NYMEX lowered $1.43 per barrel or 3.8% last week. The reduction in the oil prices was caused by the absence of positive changes in the economy of the USA and by the doubts of participants in the market regarding the fact that the plan of the new White House Administration will improve financial and economic situation in the USA in the nearest future.

Currency market

Last week the official rate of the manat against the U.S. dollar, set by the National Bank of Azerbaijan, dropped 0.00078 points or 0.078 percent. The average rate was established at 0. 0.80624 manats to 1 U.S. dollar. 

Last week the maximum rate of the US dollar compared to manat was established on Feb. 17-18 (0. 8063 manats to 1 U.S. dollar).

As a result of last week's exchange rate of the Azerbaijani manat to the U.S. dollar, established based on results from the Baku Inter-bank Currency Exchange (BICEX), decreased by 0.00078 points (0.078 percent). The average rate was fixed at 0.80624 to 1 U.S. dollar.

Deals concluded last week at BEST with transition to currency (T+0) comprised: $29.55 million with the average sustained rate of 0.8062 manat to 1 U.S. dollar on Feb. 16, $94.23 million with the average sustained rate of 0. 8063 manats to 1 U.S. dollar on Feb. 17, $41.265 million with the average sustained rate of 0. 8063 manats to 1 U.S. dollar on Feb. 18, $13.875 million with the average sustained rate of 0. 8062 manats to 1 U.S. dollar on Feb. 19, and $19.45 million with the average sustained rate of 0.8062 manats to 1 U.S. dollar on Feb. 20.

No deal was concluded with USD/AZN T+1, T+2 and SWAP_USD/AZN due to an absence of appeals by dealers. Appeals were not received on RUB/AZN and EUR/AZN (Ň+1, Ň+2).

Market of privatization shares

Price on privatization vouchers have been maintained at a high level at 25-26 manat not for a long period. After a rapid hike of prices on vouchers (67 percent) three weeks ago, prices began to fall again. Price on vouchers remained stable at 17 manat the week long.

The validity period of the vouchers will expire on Jan. 1 2010.

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