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Review of monetary sector in Azerbaijan (January 2012)

Analysis Materials 17 March 2012 11:46 (UTC +04:00)

In 2012, the policy of the financial stability of the Azerbaijani Central Bank (CBA) will focus on the continuation of recreational activities in banks and risk regulation in a preventive manner, the main directions of monetary and financial stability for 2012 said.

For this purpose, bringing the prudential supervision in accordance with the requirements of the post-crisis period and the latest global challenges will be ensured. CBA will encourage the adequate behavior of banks in terms of the current macroeconomic situation and increasing their level of financial reserve through oversight mechanisms to increase resilience to risks.

In this context, the focus will remain on risky positions associated with the asset quality in banks, especially systemically important banks, as well as liquidity and health measures. The preservation of capital activity in the "healthy" zone and the expectation of the "leverage" coefficient level (the index of the first level bank's capital to the balance sheet assets and off-balance sheet liabilities) will be ensured.

CBA will improve the prudential supervision level to achieve the main goals of financial stability and harmonization with the Basel III standards. CBA will carry out measures to use "conservative buffer" of capital within improving the quality and quantity of bank capital, as well as to enhance the role of its stable sources. The use of new standards for liquidity offered by the Basel III standard to better manage a short-term liquidity position is not excluded. CBA will keep the focus on the issue of bringing closer to international financial reporting standards to detect financial losses.

Official foreign exchange reserves in the Azerbaijani Central Bank increased by $102.3 million (one percent) in January 2012.

According to the Central Bank, Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves hit 10. 583.8 billion as of January 2012, or 61.2 percent more compared to January 2011.

As of 2010, CBA foreign exchange reserves amounted to $6.407.6 billion, and as of 2011 - $10.481.5 billion. In 2012, the Central Bank expects an increase in its foreign exchange reserves by about $3 billion.

Currency market and manat rate

Rate of manat will remain a significant factor in maintaining macroeconomic stability in governing the financial stability, as well as ensuring the international competitiveness of the non-oil sector. The growth of foreign exchange earnings to the country in 2012 will be a major macroeconomic factor affecting the rate of manat. Taking into account the significant impact of oil revenues on the real effective exchange rate of manat, the opportunities of a gradual transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime in the medium term prospect.

CBA will use monetary policy instruments to ensure the possible impact on the growth rate of money supply. Parameters of interest rate corridor, including the discount rate will be regulated depending on the situation in the economic cycle and financial markets.

Liquidity in the banking system will be regulated by both injection tools (issue of liquidity), and sterilization. An even greater increase in financial depth is an important condition to increase the macroeconomic effectiveness of using monetary policy tools. Taking this into account, the central bank will continue supporting the intensification of the organized interbank money markets in 2012.

The development of the intellectual base of monetary policy will remain in the spotlight. The economic base of diagnostics, studies and forecasting will be strengthened. CBA will continue conceptual modeling of the economy in the medium and long term periods. CBA also plans to begin practical using of forecasting models. They are considered suitable for export-oriented economies.

2012 began from a significant decrease of European currency in the world currency market. The lowest figure for 10 years - 0.9943 manat per euro was registered in Azerbaijan on January 16, 2012. This situation is connected with the fact that the euro compared to the dollar fell to its lowest level for 16 months that day, and compared to the Japanese yen - even to a minimum of last 11 years.

The Azerbaijani Central Bank said that if the CBA regulates the rate of the manat compared to the dollar depending on the inflation process in the country, the euro exchange rate is calculated on the basis of cross-rate. From this point of view, the rate of the manat compared to the European currency varies depending on the processes in the international currency market.

According to the forecasts of the Azerbaijani government, the rate of the manat compared to the euro in 2012 is expected to hit 1.0910 manat per one euro compared to 1.0939 manat expected in 2011 (according to the CBA, the exchange rate was 1.0178 manat as of the end of the year). The rate for 2013 is projected at 1.0608 manat, in 2014 - 1.0430 manat and 2015 - 1.0387 manat.

The Azerbaijani government for the first time included a forecast of the average annual rate of national currency compared to the euro in the concept of the country's socio-economic development in 2012. The forecast of the average exchange rate of manat compared to the dollar was often fixed in the budget package. The forecasts were prepared on a formal basis compared to the European currency.

The forecast of the average annual rate of national currency compared to the U.S. dollar remains unchanged - at 0.79 manat until 2015 as in 2011. As one can see, the government preserves stability with respect to the forecast of the dollar rate and predicts a gradual appreciation of the manat compared to the euro.

Nine banks participated in the trades of the currency section of Baku Interbank Currency Exchange (BBVB) in January 2012.

About 36 trading sessions were conducted and 28 transactions were registered in accounting month in "Bourse E-System of Trades" (BEST). The total volume of trades of currency section in accounting month on USD/AZN has made 64.820 million manat or 82.497 million in dollar equivalent.

The total trading volume in currency decreased by three times in Jan. compared to Dec. 2011 and increased by 3.1 percent compared to Jan. 2011.

The average daily turnover in "Bourse E-System of Trades" on USD/AZN reached approximately $ 4.583 million in Jan., then that the average volume of each transaction made $ 2.946 million.

The exchange rate of national currency on USD / AZN_TOD in the reporting month increased by 0.03 percent from 0,7857 manat to 0,7855 manat per dollar. The average rate of the dollar compared to manat was 0.7857 manat to the dollar in Jan. 2012 compared to 0.7857 manat as of Dec. 2011.

As of January 2012, total trading volume on the interbank credit market, functioning within BEST system, amounted to 12.194 million manat.

Five deals were concluded in January of 2012. The volume of manat in January this year amounted to 72.2 percent, in dollars - 19.3 percent and in euro - 8.5 percent. The transactions with a term of 91 days were popular in the reporting month. The interest rates ranged from 7 to 9 percent per annum.

The average interest rate calculated on the basis of requests made by banks-market makers for BakiBOR credits for 90 days hit 12.84 percent per annum in manat and 13.31 percent per annum in dollars in January 2012. The rate on BakiBID manat deposits for 90 days was 5.83 percent per annum and 5.32 percent in dollars.

Monetary market of Azerbaijan

The CBA's important task is to govern the money supply at an adequate level of macroeconomic and financial stability in terms of a continuous growth of foreign exchange reserves and high liquidity of the banking system.

The Azerbaijani Central Bank stressed an increase in all units of the money supply in January 2012 compared to a similar period of last year and the reduction in all parameters compared to the beginning of this year. This is a result of the influence of two factors: changes in the circulation of money and changes in their rate of turnover.

For example, the broad money M2 (currency in circulation (outside the banks) and balances in domestic currency on accounts of non-financial organizations, financial (excluding credit) organizations and physical entities) in January 2012 increased by 36 percent compared to January 2011 year and decreased by 4.06 percent compared to the data at the beginning of 2012.

So, as of Feb. 1, 2012, the rate of M2 was 10.550.6 billion manat compared to 7.763.5 billion manat as of early Feb. 2011 and 10.997.2 billion manat as of early 2012.

The amount of cash money supply (M0) as of Fe. 1, 2012 hit 6.810.8 billion manat compared to 5.266.8 billion manat as of early Feb. 2011 and 7.158.2 billion manat as of early 2012.

As of early Feb. 2012, Broad Money Supply (M3) totaled 13.474.6 billion manat compared to 10.107.3 billion manat in early Feb. 2011 and 13.903.2 billion manat as of early 2012.

The transaction money (M1) amounted to 8.361.9 billion manat as of early Feb. 2012 compared to 6.542.3 billion manat as of early Feb. 2011 and 8.824.8 billion manat as of early 2012.

Parameters of monetary market, in bln manat

Amount as of Feb. 1, 2012

Parameters of monetary market, in bln manat

13474,6

Money mass on manat (М2)

10550,6

Cash in manat (М0)

6810,8

Non-cash in manat

3739,8

As of Feb. 1, 2012, the expanded monetary base amounted to 7.686.7 billion manat in Azerbaijan. According to the CBA, the annual monetary base increased by 27.8 percent and decreased by 9.45 percent compared to early 2012.

As of Feb. 1, 2012, reserve money in the country amounted to 7.601.5 billion manat compared to 5.960.6 million manat as of Feb. 1, 2011 and 8.275.3 billion manat as of Jan. 1, 2012.

As of Jan. 1, 2012, the monetary base in manat amounted to 8.275.3 billion manat compared to 7.417.4 billion manat as of Dec. , 2011, 6.397.1 billion manat as of Jan. 1, 2011.

During the reporting period, cash in circulation was equal to 7.222.3 billion manat, while as of Feb. 1, 2011 this figure amounted to 5.563.5 billion manat and as of January 1, 2012 - 7.658.5 manat.

The bank reserves were equal to 459.4 million manat or 2.1 percent more than in Jan. 2011 (449.8 million manat) This is 55.6 percent less than the figure as of early 2012 (826.4 million manat).

The ratio of the mass of cash in circulation to the money base amounted to 94 percent during the reporting period compared to 92.5 percent as of Feb. 1, 2011 and 90.2 percent as of early Jan. 2012.

It should be noted that a large share of cash in circulation is one of the shortages of the Azerbaijani monetary system.

Credit market of Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani banks increased lending to the Azerbaijani economy by 1.35 percent in Jan. 2012 and by 10.2 percent per year.

As of early Feb., the banks delivered loans totaling 10.084.6 billion manat (including 6.527.8 billion manat in national currency (64.7 percent) in national currency and 3.556.8 billion manat in hard currency) 35.3 percent.

As of early Jan., the figure was equal to 9.950.3 billion manat (6.426.5 billion in national currency and 3.523.8 billion manat in hard currency), and as of Feb. 1, 2011 -9.149.8 billion manat (5.876.9 billion manat and 3.272.9 billion manat in hard currency).

Of the total portfolio, loans worth 643.1 million manat (6.38 percent) were overdue compared to 633.8 million manat as of Jan.1, about 497 million manat as of Feb.1, 2011. Statistics of overdue loans does not include similar loans of non-bank credit institution Aqrarkredit.

Short-term loans as of early Feb. 2012, amounted to 3.090 billion manat (including overdue loans worth 331.9 million manat) compared to 3.051.2 billion manat (including overdue loans worth 326.2 million manat) as of Jan. 1, about 2.551.3 billion manat (253.9 million) as of Feb.1, 2011.

The amount of short-term loans increased by 21.11 percent per year. As of early Feb., 34.38 percent of short-term lending fell to hard currency.

Long-term loans amounted to 6.994.5 billion manat (including 311.2 million manat overdue loans) in early Feb. compared to 6.899.1 billion manat (307.6 million overdue loans) as of Jan. 1, 6.598.5 billion manat (243 million manat) as of Feb. 1, 2011. The amount of long-term loans increased by 6 percent per year. As of the late Jan. 2012, 35.66 percent of long-term lending fell to hard currency.

As of early Feb. 2012, the only state bank of the country (the International Bank of Azerbaijan) granted loans totaling 3.353.4 billion manat with a specific weight of 33.3 percent (increased by 1.6 percent in Jan.), and private banks - 6.461.3 billion manat with a specific weight of 64.1 percent (increasing by 0.98 percent in Jan.). The remaining 2.7 percent fall to the share of non-bank credit organizations, which delivered loans worth 269.8 million manat.

The loans given to the population in the Azerbaijani regions hit 1.269.2 billion manat as of early Feb. 2012 or 12.59 percent of the total loan portfolio of banks.

As of early February 2012, banks gave 10.084.6 billion manat, including 6.527.8 billion manat (64.7 percent) in national currency and 3.556.8 billion manat (35.3 percent) in freely convertible currencies.

In Baku, the figure was 8.815.4 billion manat, where the loans in national currency hit 5.586.7 billion manat.

The average interest rate in the country as of Feb. was 16.4 percent, Baku - 15.8 percent.

The lending volume on Absheron economic region totaled 285.11 million manat at an average rate of 17.6 percent, Aran - 280.9 million manat 22.4 percent, Mountain-Shirvan - 33.19 million manat 20.5 percent, Ganja -Gazakh - 281.26 million manat 21.5 percent, Guba-Khachmaz - 103.01 million manat 20.9 percent, Lankaran - 121.97 million manat 24.4 percent, Sheki-Zagatala - 82.29 million manat 23 percent, the Upper Karabakh - 11.89 million manat 20.2 percent, Kalbajar-Lachin - 2.08 million manat 17.3 percent, Nakhchivan - 67.45 million manat 11.8 percent.

Most of all loans are granted to households in Azerbaijan. According to the CBA, as of Feb. 1, 2012 households received 33.3 percent or loans worth 3.358.5 billion manat.

The sphere of trade and services (28.7 percent or 2.892.0 billion manat) ranks second, the construction sector of real estate (8.9 percent or 892.9 million manat) ranks third.

About 5.8 percent or 581.6 million manat accounted for industry and production, 4.7 percent (470.1 million manat) - agriculture and processing, 4.1 percent or 417.2 million manat - transport and communications, 2.8 percent (285.6 million manat) - energy, natural resources, 0.5 percent or 50.5 million manat of loans - rest areas.

As of Feb. 1, 2012 the average interest rate on credits in national currency - manat in Azerbaijani banks was 16.24 percent compared to 16.27 percent as of Jan. 1, 16.4 percent as of Feb. 1, 2011.

According to the CBA, the average rate on bank loans in hard currency amounted to 16.4 percent compared to 16.79 percent and 16.86 percent.

By early Feb. the average rate on bank lending to legal entity in national currency amounted to 14.56 percent compared to 14.53 percent as of Jan. 1, 2012 and 14.4 percent as of Feb. 1, 2011. The average rate on corporate client's bank loans in hard currency was 13.77 percent compared to 14.3 percent and 13.63 percent respectively.

The average rate on bank lending to physical entities in national currency amounted to 18.98 percent as of early Feb. 2012 compared to 19.06 percent as of Jan. 1, 2012 and 19.85 percent - as of Feb. 1, 2011.

The average rate on corporate client's bank credit in hard currency amounted to 22.89 percent compared to 22.9 percent, 23.87 percent respectively.

Banking sector of Azerbaijan

As of Feb. 1, 2012, the total amount of deposits of physical and legal entities in Azerbaijani banks amounted to 6.709.2 billion manat.

Including deposits of non-residents and state agencies, the figure was 9.281.2 billion manat, which is more by 26.8 percent compared Jan. 2011(7.321.3 billion manat) and by 1.75 percent less compared to early 2012.

The deposits in national currency - manat hit 4.181.8 billion manat as of Feb. 1, of which 1.629.9 manat - demand deposits, 2.551.9 million manat - term deposits. The deposits in freely convertible currencies hit 5.099.4 billion manat (1.568.1 billion manat and 3.531.3 billion manat respectively).

As of Feb.1, 2012, the volume of physical entities' deposits in banks in Azerbaijan amounted to 4.179.5 billion manat, which is 36 percent more compared to the same period of 2011 (3.072.1 billion manat) and by 1.45 percent as of early 2012.

Some 231.5 million manat (55.4 percent) of the population were placed in the national currency - manat, 1.864.5 billion manat - in hard currency.

There was a situation when cash deposits of Azerbaijan's population in the national currency exceed cash deposits in foreign currency from the beginning of the year as in December, November and August.

As of 2011, 2.281.6 billion manat (55.4 percent) of the population were placed in the national currency - manat, 1.838.1 billion manat - in hard currency.

Deposits of the population, drawn to the banking system from the Azerbaijani regions (areas of the country, except for Baku), as of Feb. 1, 2012 amounted to 346.7 million manat or 8.3 percent of total volume of bank deposits.

The volume of deposits on Baku amounted to 3.832.7 billion manat, while the deposits in national currency hit 2.056.6 billion manat, currency - 1.776.08 billion manat.

The average interest rate for the country during the reporting period amounted to 8.9 percent, Baku - 9.0 percent.

The amount of deposits on Absheron economic region amounted to 111.5 million manat, with an average rate of 9.5 percent, Aran - 55.7 million manat at 5.0 percent, the Mountain-Shirvan - 7.23 million manat at 6.9 percent, Ganja -Gazakh - 64.17 million manat at 7.5 percent, Guba-Khachmaz - 26.78 million manat at 7.6 percent, Lankaran - 25.8 million manat at 7.0 percent, Sheki-Zagatala - 22.0 million manat at 6.1 percent, the Upper Karabakh - 8.9 million manat at 3.7 percent, Kalbajar-Lachin - 2.3 million manat at 4.6 percent, Nakhchivan - 22.2 million manat at 2.3 percent.

In Jan. 2012 the volume of legal entities' deposits amounted to 2.529.7 billion manat, of which 689.7 million manat were invested in the national currency, 1.840 billion manat - in foreign currency.

The volume of deposits of legal entities in Jan. 2012 increased by 18.24 percent compared to Jan. 2011 (2.139.4 million manat) and by 0.4 percent from early 2012 (2.519.5 billion manat).

The average rate on deposits in manat as of Feb. 1, 2012 was 10.39 percent compared to 10.26 percent as of Jan. 1, 2012, 11.16 percent as of Feb. 1, 2011.

The average rate on deposits in foreign currency amounted to 11.15 percent compared to 11.11 percent and 11.35 percent respectively.

As of Feb. 1, 2012, the average rate on physical entities' deposits in manat was 10.81 percent compared to 10.76 percent as of early Jan. and 11.83 percent as of early Feb. 2011. The average rate on individual clients' deposits in foreign currency amounted to 11.28 percent compared to 11.27 percent and 12.12 percent respectively.

As of early Feb. 2012, the average rate on legal entities' deposits in manat was 5.99 percent compared to 5.6 percent as of Jan. 1, 2012 and 6.27 percent as of Feb. 1, 2011.

The average rate on corporate clients' deposits in foreign currency was 7.41 percent compared to 7.02 percent and 5.07 percent respectively

According to the Azerbaijani Central Bank, as of Feb. 1, 2012, the assets of banks increased to 14.205.1 billion manat compared to 13.133.88 billion manat as of the same period of 2011. The banks' assets increased by 8.16 percent per year.

The total liabilities of the banking sector were estimated at 14.205.1 million manat.

The basis of the assets of the banking sector includes the loans given to customers amounting to 9.118.4 billion manat, investments (1.487.3 million manat) and funds on correspondent accounts (982.5 million manat). The loans to financial sector amounted to 571.3 million manat.

The deposits have a major share in the structure of liabilities (6.606.1 billion manat on February 1, 2012). Loans and deposits of the financial sector amounted to 4.368 million manat.

During January 2012 the capitalization of the banking sector in Azerbaijan increased by 1.2 percent and by 12.67 percent compared to January 2011, amounting to 2.456.8 billion manat as of Feb. 1, 2012.

According to the CBA, the number of banks with capital exceeding ten million manat, hit 42 units as of Jan. and remained unchanged compared to the previous month and January 2011. The share of this category of banks in the total capital of all banks in the country in January was 99.5 percent compared to 99.4 percent in December and 98.9 percent - in January 2011.

At present, the two banks do not comply with the CBA requirements in terms of capitalization [minimum capital must be ten million manat]. One bank (with a specific weight of 0.3 percent) has the capital from 5 million manat to 10 million manat, other (0.2 percent) - from 3.5 million manat to 5 million manat.

There were 35 banks operating at a profit in Azerbaijan in Jan.2012. The number increased by 4 banks compared to Dec. 2011, and by 6 banks compared to Feb.2011. The number of profitable banks today is 39.

The total profit of the banking system in January was 28.25 million manat, which is 95.5 percent more than the corresponding figure for January last year, and 33 percent less than in December 2011.

The number of unprofitable banks decreased by 4 compared to December 2011 and decreased by 6 at an annual rate. As a result, the loss of nine banks amounted to 5.31 million manat, or 2.19 times less than in December and three times less than in January 2011.

Financial results of the banks' activity (after paying taxes) in million manat

Periods

Number of profitable banks

The total profit of the banking system (profitable banks)

Number of unprofitable banks

The total loss of the banking system (unprofitable banks)

Total profit (+) or loss (-) obtained by banks

01-02-2011

29

14,45

15

16,12

-1,67

01-02-2012

35

28,25

9

5,31

22,94

Stock market

2012 will become one of the most significant years in the rapid development of the corporate securities market for the Azerbaijani stock market, Chairman of the Baku Stock Exchange (BSE) Emin Aliyev said.

"First of all, favorable macroeconomic situation and the steady growth of Azerbaijan's economy and as a consequence the securities market contribute to this," Aliyev said. "Over the past five years, the trading volumes on the market rose by 4.5 times. Second, the legislative base promotes progressive movement and motivates enterprises to domestic borrowing. Third, the market develops, that is the foundation for the development of the sector has already been laid and it is further strengthening."

The corporate sector holds a watershed on the benefits of financing with the traditionally well-established banking and stock markets.

"Of course, the enterprises must have a number of qualities, above all, financial and managerial," he said. But, having obtained them, and ensured a way to the stock market, the company receives a low-cost financial resource. The enterprise itself builds its borrowing policy in terms and repayment period, and, of course, creates a positive image."

According to the statistics, the corporate sector of the securities market on the stock exchange has been recently demonstrating a confident growth trend. The average increase was 70 percent for the last five years. This occurred mainly due to the growth of the primary market, corporate bonds and shares.

"Our vision is that the sector growth is expected to continue in 2012, especially in the primary market of corporate bonds, as domestic borrowing is expected to be revived by the resident companies amid the ongoing financial crisis in Europe," he said.

The total turnover of transactions on all instruments on Baku Stock Exchange (BSE) for January 2012 totaled 940 million manat, or by 5.2 times more compared to January 2011.

Corporate securities market decreased by 1.8 times, compared to January 2011. The figure hit 25.6 million manat. This is stipulated by the reduction in the corporate bond market by two times, while the stock market increased by 66.3 percent.

The state securities market increased by 6.8 times, reaching 914.4 million manat. Almost a tenfold increase in repo transactions and the growth of operations with the notes of the Central Bank by 1.8 times influenced this situation.

Comparative table on the results of trades of Corporate Securities at BSE (January 2012)

Market segments

2012 (Dec. 1)

2011 (Dec. 1)

Percentage ratio

Volume of transactions, AZN

Number of deals

Volume of transactions, AZN

Number of deals

Corporate bonds- (placement)

6 374 836,00

3

13 003 501,00

7

49,02%

Corporate bonds - (secondary market)

15 863 469,80

7

31 690 179,37

9

50,06%

CBs Total

22 238 305,80

10

44 693 680,37

16

49,76%

Stocks - (placement)

3 303 000,00

8

1 635 196,00

5

201,99%

Stocks -

(secondary market)

82 092,88

107

400 878,28

165

20,48%

Stocks Total

3 385 092,88

115

2 036 074,28

170

166,26%

CS Market Total

25 623 398,68

125

46 729 754,65

186

54,83%

Comparative table on the results of trades of Government Securities at BSE (January 2012)

Market segments

2012 (Dec. 1)

2011 (Dec. 1)

Percentage ratio

Volume of transactions, AZN

Number of deals

Volume of transactions, AZN

Number of deals

GB - (AR MF) (placement)

0,00

0

0,00

0

-

GB - (AR MF) (secondary market)

0,00

0

1 031 472,00

1

-

GB Total

0,00

0

1 031 472,00

1

-

Notes (AR CB) - (placement)

84 836 613,35

22

48 927 612,10

19

173,39%

Notes (AR CB) - (secondary market)

2 495 727,50

1

0,00

0

-

Notes Total

87 332 340,85

23

48 927 612,10

19

178,49%

Repo operations

827 112 619,77

127

84 396 606,97

30

980,03%

GS Market Total

914444 960,62

150

134 355 691,07

50

680,61%

The National Depository Center (NDC) under the Azerbaijani State Securities Committee registered 114 stock transactions on share purchase-sale to the amount of 15.9 million manat at a bargain price, 15.5 million manat - at face value in Jan. 2012.

In Jan., the depository center registered 25 off-exchange transactions to the amount of 2.5 million manat at face value, and 11 transactions on an additional issue worth 9.61 million manat in nominal value.

In Jan., the volume of transactions exceeded the off-exchange transactions by almost 1.6 times, and the number of transactions exceeded the off-exchange transactions by 10.4 times.

The National Depository Center has the securities to the amount of 6.5 billion manat.

In January 2012 the National Depository Center concluded agreements with six companies to render services for the registry and depositary, the center said.

"Berde Yun", "Kurdemir Tikinti Temir", "Ağcabedi NEM", "İsmayıllı Senaye İstehsal", "Eli-Bayramlı Kimyevi Temizleme", "Sabirabad Yem Zavodu" are among them.

NDC was established on September 18, 1997. The founder and owner of the center's shares was the Azerbaijani State Property Committee. After establishing the State Securities Committee, the NDC shares were transferred to its property. In this regard, the NDC was re-established by the State Securities Committee on September 8, 1999 and passed the state registration on September 17, 1999.

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