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GENERAL ECONOMIC SITUATION

Analysis Materials 2 December 2005 12:01

In January to October 2005 the GDP grew 13.5% in Azerbaijan as compared to 2004. The GDP grew 23.4% and made up 46.4trln manats at current prices.

Growth pace of industrial production went up in this period and attained 30%. The growth was possible at the expense of commencement of the bulk oil production from the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli fields.

The growth of production in the agrarian sector grew 7.2% in January to August 2005 against 5.0% in 2004.

The investments put in major capital reduced. A total of 21.5trln manats was invested in economy, which is 10.4% up as compared to 2004 when it was 42.7%. The major reason for drop in investments is cut in demand by the oil and gas sector in connection with the completion of major part of construction work in this sector.

Thus, growth pace of consumer demand rose. The turnover of retail good turnover rose 12.5%, while the community services grew 21.4%.

Value Added Price

In bn manats

Special weight, in %

Real rise, in %

GDP in total

46394,2

100,0

123,4

Good production

30329,5

65,4

133,2

Including

Industry

22550,7

48,6

149,2

Agriculture

3177,2

6,8

107,2

Construction

4601,6

9,9

101,5

Production of services

12318,3

26,5

108,6

Including

Transport

2758,5

5,9

110,3

Communications

1042,9

2,2

132,2

Trade

3198,6

6,9

112,5

Hotels and restaurants

303,5

0,7

128,6

Social and informal services

5014,8

10,8

101,2

Net taxes on production

3746,4

8,1

107,1

Deflation

109,2

Sources: State Statistics Committee, calculations by Trend

Major part of demand was satisfied at the expense of import, which grew by 24.98% and comprised $3.22bn. The volume of export made up $3.70bn, or 34.34% up as compared to last year. The foreign trade ended in balance with $0.19bn in red.

Growth pace of consumer prices fell and made up 7.1% in June. Brake in foodstuff prices tariffs was the key factor for cut in prices.

In January to September net incomes of population grew 26.8%, comprising 30.6trln manats. Net incomes of population grew 5.1%, whereas the growth pace of inflation gained 5.4%.

Despite fall in real incomes from deposits as a result of rapid growth of prices and consolidation of manat in regard to US dollar, savings of physical entities went down. As of 1 October 2005, the amount of savings summed up 2.29trln manats and exceeded the similar figure of last year by 24.5%. Growth pace of deposits turned out 38.3% down as compared to January to October of 2004 (62.8%).

In October the major tendency in the financial sector was rise of manat rates in regard to USD - it rose 3.17 points to 4594.23 manats per US dollar. The key reason of devaulayion of manat rates was possible due to cut in grwth pace of inflation.

According to the National Bank of Azerbaijan (NBA) real exchange rate of manat, calculated on the foreign trade turnover, consolidated 11.9% in respect to December 2004. However, in September index of real exchange rate calculated through foreign trade index was 13.2% down as compared to December 2000. The change indicate serious consolidation of manat in Octber.

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