Market situation. demand and prices

Analysis Materials 7 December 2006 12:02 (UTC +04:00)

Consumer Market

In October rise in the retail goods turnover and services rendered to population was fixed n the level of 18.9%.

According the State Statistics Committee, in January to October 2006 the amount of retail goods turnover was equal to 4,624,5mln manats, or 12.7% more than 2005. The amount of commercial services rendered to population comprised 1,108,5mln manats, which is 40.9% up as compared to 10 months of 2005.

In accordance with the econometric model of the National Ban of Azerbaijan (NBA), in January to October 2006 the share of monetary factors in the formation of 7.6%-inftation was 45.1%. Major impact as made by money mass which demonstrated 92.6%-rise. Such rise falls on the period from January to August 2006. Rise in net efficiency rate on the non-oil sector was 0.2% from December 2005 to July 2006.

Considerable impact on inflation was made by non-monetary facrors (54.9%). The share of administratively regulated pirces made up 20.3% in this period, which is linked with the rise in the prices of diesel fuel in January 2 times, kerosene -1.3 times, sugar 34.6%. The impact of seasonal factors was satisfactory (-16.8%), which caused 3.6% drop in prices.

In October the participation of food products in the formation of inflation was 76.2%, including bead and bread products 3.5%, meat and meat products 21.8%, fruit and vegetable 27.5%, oil and fat 1.2%, milk and eggs 11.8%, sugar and tea 10.1%, drinks and tobacco 0.3%. In this period the share of non-food products made up 18.5%, services 5.4%.


In January to October the growth pace of inflation was 7.7% as compared to 2005, when it was at 10.5%. The consumer prices rose 11.2% in October as compared to last year.

Inconsiderable rise in the growth pace of inflation was caused by intensification of the growth pace of prices of all goods. Thus, in October the food prices rose 10.6% as compared to December. Rise in prices was 11% in January to October 2006 as compared to last year. Rise in prices of non-food products was more considerable than food prices. Thus, in October the prices of non-food products increased 5.4% as compared to December. Rise in prices as compared to last year was 5%.

In January to September local production failed to cover domestic demand, while import covered the considerable part of demand. As to foreign demand on local export product it remains to be high, while the export sector speeds up.

The special weight of export in GDP dropped from 7.7% in January to September 2005 to 8.4% in January to September of 2006.

As compared to September 2006, in October index of industrial goods dropped 0.9%, while the figure rose 17.8% as compared to January to October 2005 and 16.1% as compared to October 2005. In accordance with the figures fixed in December 2005 rise in prices was 17.8% in October. Rise in prices in the oil and gas production was 13.6% in January to October 2005 and 9.7% - in October 2005.

The wholesale prices in oil refinery rose 24.2%, while growth pace was 27.4% in October 2006 as compared to 2005. Over 2006 rise in the refinery of chemical products was 1.3%, in October 9.8%, in metallurgy 10.5% and 11.4% respectively, whereas he prices remained almost unchanged and made up 99.9%.