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Iran’s missiles - not a “game-changer” (exclusive)

Politics Materials 19 October 2015 14:54 (UTC +04:00)
Iran’s missile systems are not a game-changer, Greg Thielmann, Arms Control Association Senior Fellow and Director of ACA's Realistic Threat Assessment and Response Project believes
Iran’s missiles - not a “game-changer” (exclusive)

Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct. 19

By Umid Niayesh - Trend:

Iran's missile systems are not a game-changer, Greg Thielmann, Arms Control Association Senior Fellow and Director of ACA's Realistic Threat Assessment and Response Project believes.

" Iran has hundreds of ballistic missiles, but they are medium-range or shorter-range systems, with no ability to reach targets far beyond Iran 's borders. These weapons are of understandable concern to Iran 's immediate neighbors, to US warships operating in the Persian Gulf, and to our partner Israel. But they cannot target the heart of NATO Europe or North America," the former US diplomat told Trend Oct. 19.

He further said that armed with conventional warheads and relatively inaccurate, Iran's ballistic missiles have limited military utility.

They can inflict pain and suffering on civilians, as happened in the "War of the Cities" during the eight-year conflict between Iraq and Iran, but they are not decisive militarily and they do not constitute an existential threat to any nation, Thielmann, who served as Director of the Strategic, Proliferation and Military Affairs Office in the Department of State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research said.

Even with the significant accuracy improvement claimed by Iran in the latest test of the new Emad (medium-range ballistic missile) MRBM which took place Oct. 11 would not be sufficient to make it lethal against point targets, he underlined. Furthermore, the military effectiveness of Iranian ballistic missiles is being further diminished by the proliferation of tactical and regional missile defenses in Israel and the Gulf States, Thielmann said.

"And because the July nuclear deal will prevent Iran from arming its ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads for many years, Iran 's missile potential looks far less formidable than it would be without the agreement."

The impact of Iran's missile inventory for the foreseeable future is thus tactical, not strategic; these systems remain a factor in the security calculus, but they do not constitute a "game-changer," the expert underscored. He further noted that Iran has never tested an intermediate- or intercontinental-range system; nor has it asserted a need to do so.

The expert also commented on Iranian Simorgh space-launch vehicle that was unveiled in 2010 saying there has been no flight of Simorgh, which was seen by some as a technological stalking horse for developing a longer-range military system. The first flight of the Simorgh rocket was scheduled for March 2010 that was later postponed for 2013 but it never materialized.

While responding a question about Iran's purposes in revealing underground missile bases and test-firing ballistic missile only days ahead of nuclear deal implementation Thielmann said that these attempts are most likely promotional.

"I suspect that the timing of Iran's recent missile flight-test and the release of the video of the missiles in tunnels is an attempt at saber-rattling by hardliners to demonstrate that Iran's ballistic missile program is active, making progress, and unaffected by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), agreed to in July."

Ironically, the test of a more accurate guidance system on a liquid-fuel MRBM just increases suspicions that the more advanced, solid-fuel Sejjil MRBM has encountered problems in development, he added.

The expert also put validity of Iran's claim on having underground missile bases across the country under question.

"I would be highly dubious of any claim from Iran that it has missile bases in all provinces and cities throughout the country at a depth of 500 meters."

Iran for the first time released the footage showcasing one of its underground missile bases on Oct. 14 and the commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), Aerospace Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said that Tehran created missile bases in all the provinces and cities throughout the country at a depth of 500 meters. "Iran's known military power is only the tip of the iceberg," the IRGC commander added.

Meanwhile Thielmann explains that Iran has a history of exaggerating its strength, sometimes through such crude techniques as photo-shopping multiple simultaneous missile launches, but more often by calling missiles "long-range," which would be labeled short- or medium-range in the United States.

"I think the US intelligence community has a good understanding of Iran 's military power."

Commenting on the seriousness of the threat Iran poses, he stressed that Iran's most serious threat would be developing and deploying nuclear warheads on its ballistic missiles -- a prospect now much less likely, because of the JCPOA.

The second most serious threat is that posed to Israel by the aid in weapons and training Iran gives to Hezbollah, he added.

Edited by CN

Umid Niayesh is Trend Agency's staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @UmidNiayesh

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