Russian political scientist doubts effectiveness of next OSCE summit on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Russia, Moscow, Sept.28 / Trend A. Gasimova /
The effectiveness of an OSCE summit to be held in Kazakhstan in December to address the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is in doubt, Alexei Vlasov, Director-General of the Information and Analytical Center for Study of the Social and Political Processes in Post-Soviet Space at the M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, believes.
"Kazakhstan unsuccessfully tried to formulate a roadmap for both sides in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," Vlasov, a member of Trend's advisory council, said at a meeting with journalists in Moscow. "However, most likely, intermediaries at the summit in Kazakhstan will not achieve any significant results."
A recent visit to the South Caucasus region by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev showed that Russia wants to simultaneously rely on Baku and Yerevan, Vlasov said.
Vlasov said that in the near future we can expect Baku and Yerevan to sign a document on the non-use of force in the resolution of the frozen dispute. However, the expert doubts that Azerbaijan will agree to that under current conditions.
According to Vlasov, there is currently a pause in the negotiations and no real resolution of the conflict is in sight.
"Moscow maneuvers in the South Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan and, ideally, both countries could become Russia's points of support in the region," Vlasov said.
Moscow needs to show that the process goes on, and furthermore, that it is the chief moderator, so the Kremlin will continue to initiate meetings of the parties, he believes.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the U.S. - are currently holding the peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented the UN Security Council's four resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding regions.