Azerbaijan, Baku, May 31 /Trend/
The mediators should take into account that for the Armenians, it is vital that the document on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would not be signed in Kazan, the director of the Center for Political Innovation and Technology, a political scientist Mubariz Ahmedoglu told Trend.
"Despite that the Deauville statement by the presidents of the OSCE Minsk Group member countries is positive, the Armenians will seriously hinder the implementation of its provisions," said Ahmedoglu.
He said even before the Deauville statement, the Armenian experts commented on the inability of Armenia to conduct an independent policy on Nagorno-Karabakh and the inclination of the Armenians towards undesirable compromises.
"Western officials - Jerzy Buzek, Philippe Gordon and others - even before the Deauville statement said that the Armenian authorities must prepare their people for compromise in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. Immediately after the Deauville statement, the foreign minister of Armenia grossly misrepresented the essence of this statement, having referred it not to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, but the conflict of Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh," said Ahmedoglu.
He said after the Deauville statement, the Iranian issue actualized with the mouth of the Russian experts.
"Allegedly, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement in the direction specified in the Deauville statement does not meet the interests of Iran. After such events, Yerevan always had some "home preparations". At this time, the essence of this "home preparations" was to whet Iran and direct its activities to disrupt the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It is impossible to ignore the criticism and ridicule of Russian experts regarding this important statement on which the Russian president also affixed his signature. The military prospect of Armenia can not keep its ambitions on Karabakh in toes today, which gradually weakened. In connection with the transition to 12-year education system during the fall, at least 6000 young people in Armenia will not be conscripted to the army. Armenia can realize its plans for war against Azerbaijan in the near future, but it will be impossible in future," Ahmedoglu said.
According to the analyst, Armenia's statement with the words of the CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha that are contrary to the interests of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Russian Federation and meet only short-term interests of Armenia are an important indicator of this country's preparation of a new war against Azerbaijan.
"It needs to take into account Armenia's intention to draw Iran into the politico-diplomatic and military blackmail in the disruption of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. Disruption of the procedure of signing the document in Kazan on June 25 is vital for the Armenians.
Supporters of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, the presidents of the OSCE Minsk Group member countries, especially the Russian President should take serious and precautionary measures against possible tricks of Armenia to disrupt the meeting, scheduled for June 25 in Kazan (the resignation of foreign minister of Armenia, or even Serzh Sargsyan, creation of a tense situation inside the country, etc.), and even possible military adventures of this country," said Ahmedoglu.
According to him, as preventive measures, it is possible to spread official information on the possibility to prepare a great peace agreement based on the updated Madrid principles and its adoption at the UN Security Council if the relevant document is not signed in Kazan.
At the same time, it is possible to officially declare the possible refusal from the option for a peaceful settlement of the conflict and giving preference to other options.
"It is possible to spread official information on the significance of Article 51 of the UN Charter to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Even after implementing these measures, the likelihood of signing of the relevant document by the Armenian president in Kazan is small," said Ahmedoglu.