Situation in Georgia to Provoke Further Aggravation of Relations in Caucasus: Experts

Situation in Georgia to Provoke Further Aggravation of Relations in Caucasus: Experts

Azerbaijan, Baku, 8 August / Trend , corr. E.Tariverdieva / The situation in Georgia can provoke further aggravation of relations in Caucasus, although Russia hardly will want to bring situation to the conflict.

"It is now difficult to say whether these actions will transform into large-scale war, but I do not exclude that the conflict will cover entire Caucasus," said Director for Studies of the Central Asia- Caucasus Institute, Professor of John Hopkins University, Cornell told Trend .

In the early morning of 8 August, large-scale military operations commenced in the unrecognized South Ossetia Republic. Information was provided that the Georgian military people entered Tsinkhvali in the early morning. Official Tbilisi describes the events as "re-establishment of constitutional disciplines". The unrecognized South Ossetia Republic asks Russia to provide military assistance. In the morning of 8 August, mobilization of the reserved military people was declared. This information was provided by the President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, through Georgian television. According to the information, over the past years, more than 100,000 people passed military training and were reserved. The trained people are under age of 25-45 years.   

Leading American expert on the Caucasus Svante Kornell believes a war in the Caucasus is possible. The impetus to the war was given this night. Kornell said from Stockholm on 8 August that a new military hotbed in the Caucasus would be advantageous for Moscow.

However, independent Russian expert Pribilovski believes Moscow will not exacerbate the relations with Europe, protecting Ossetia. Georgia will not allow Russia to put South Ossetia under its control and Russia will not intensively interfere with the conflict.

According to Pribilovski, Saakashvili's next goal - Abkhazia - is a more complicated issue. The population of the region will resist. There is a real army. If Saakashvili manages to bring both territories under control, he will rule in Georgia for next 10-15 years. "He will subdue Ossetia, but the problem will be with Abkhazia," he said.

Pribilovski forecasts that in next days, possibly tomorrow, Tskhinvali will be occupied. No guerrilla war is expected. "Ossetins will not resist. All supporter of Eduard Kokoity will move to North Ossetia," he said.

Expert said now it is urgent for Saakashvili to bring everything to the end, since suspension of attack will be taken by the opposition as Saakashvili's defeat.

Georgian independent expert Koba Loklokadze supported the position. "It is too difficult to foretell further development of the events. The only thing I can say is to call on the authorities to carry the issue to its conclusion," he said to Trend .

British expert Nathaniel Copsey says that this is clearly a gamble; if Russia intervenes on a large scale, the Georgians will lose.

"The Georgian government may therefore have calculated that it will have time to restore full control over South Ossetia before the Russians have a chance to act," Copsey, fellow of European Research Institute at Chatham House,  told Trend .

According to Pribilovski, only the Security Council may keep Russia from the interference in the conflict.

At the initiative of Moscow, in the 03:00 GMT on Friday, the members of the UN Security Council gathered to a special conference, but they could not agree upon the final text of statement on situation in South Ossetia, BBC reported.

The UN Security Council limited with the statements, mainly in favor of Georgia although there were recommendations regarding the termination of military operations, expert said. "The Security Council can influence on Russia, and after seeing that United Nations supports Georgia, Russia will be more careful," said Pribilovski.

Johanna Popjanevski, European expert on security, considers that the UN can not manage the situation.

Johanna Popjanevski, Deputy Director of the Institute for security and development policy (Sweden), told Trend via telephone that the UN has already shown its inability to take part in this process. The current events show that the peacekeeping troops in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia need to be replaced with an international force, preferably led by the European Union.

According to the experts, the situation between Georgia and South Ossetia was predicted.

Cornell considers that constant provocations by South Ossetia caused this situation. This is response reaction to those that the Ossetians made in the Georgian villages, expert said. According to him, Ossetia is controlled by Moscow, and it was provoked precisely by Russia. "Because currently the former General of State Security Committee heads the so-called Ossetia Republic," said Cornell.

Pribilovski considers that those that now Saakashvili makes with South Ossetia are approximately the same as Putin made with Chechnya in 1999-2000 - restoration of regime by forcible methods.

In the beginning of 1990, South Ossetia, having the status of autonomies within Georgia, proclaimed its independence with the support of Russia. A military conflict resulted in lost of control over the territories by official Tbilisi. The countries worldwide and international organizations have not recognized independence of South Ossetia. The peaceful negotiations for more than ten years have not yielded any results.

The material was devised with the assistance of R.Zhavoronkovo, R.Hafizoglu

The correspondent can be contacted at: [email protected]

Subscribe to Trend in Google News! Subscribe
Italy reports 138,860 COVID cases on Sunday, 227 deaths
Italy reports 138,860 COVID cases on Sunday, 227 deaths
Italy's Berlusconi hospitalised in Milan since Thursday
Italy's Berlusconi hospitalised in Milan since Thursday
Talks between Taliban and Western and Afghan representatives underway in Norway
Talks between Taliban and Western and Afghan representatives underway in Norway
Loading Bars
Georgia’s imports of copper ores from Azerbaijan down
Islamic State claims responsibility for attack in Herat, Afghanistan
Speaker of Armenian National Assembly to temporarily be Acting President
Georgia’s revenues from tourism to surge in 2022 – Galt & Taggart
Italy reports 138,860 COVID cases on Sunday, 227 deaths
Minister of Roads and Urban Development of Iran to visit Azerbaijan
Armenian president resigns
Iraq schedules crude shipments for March loading amid strong demand: Official
Italy's Berlusconi hospitalised in Milan since Thursday
Turkey sees increase in number of real estate purchased by Kazakh citizens in 2021
Talks between Taliban and Western and Afghan representatives underway in Norway
Azerbaijan shares data on number of vaccinated citizens
Iran’s Bahar Azadi gold coin price rebounds
Azerbaijan confirms 1,697 more COVID-19 cases, 526 recoveries
Some 72 COVID-19 cases recorded among those arrived at Beijing Olympics
Thai PM to visit Saudi Arabia as diplomatic relations thaw
US Navy says it detained ship delivering cargo for Houthis from Iran
Biggest problem with US is its support to YPG: Defense minister
Russia confirms over 63,200 COVID-19 daily cases
Azerbaijan prioritizes creation of food safety through local production
Azerbaijani Defense Ministry presents weekly review (VIDEO)
Expat doctors worked alongside Kuwaiti counterparts to revive Kuwaiti health sector: Dr Riyadh Khan
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for January 23
Weekly review of main events of Azerbaijani financial market
Weekly review of main events in Azerbaijan’s ICT sector
Iran discloses volume of electricity generated by Gilan Combined Cycle Power Plant
Weekly review of Azerbaijani precious metals market
Azerbaijan commissions new military facilities (PHOTO/VIDEO)
Tickets are available for two bus trips to Azerbaijan’s liberated Aghdam city
Tank and artillery shells found in Azerbaijan’s Samur-Absheron canal (PHOTO/VIDEO)
Bosphorus Strait temporarily closed in both directions
One person killed, two hurt in Budapest hospital fire -police
Intercity bus plunges into abyss in Turkey’s Istanbul city
An extra meal and snacks twice a day was all it took to improve falling nutrition levels in this tribal district
Almost all Kazakhstan remains in COVID-19 ‘red zone’
Nadal beats Mannarino in battle of left-handers to reach last eight
Azerbaijan holds training exercises in commando military unit (VIDEO)
Georgia reports 9,696 coronavirus cases, 5,408 recoveries, 28 deaths
Training session for reservists continues in Azerbaijan (VIDEO)
Iranian currency rates for January 23
Arab League delays annual summit as COVID-19 bites again
Turkey plans to hold next meeting within "3 + 3" format - Erdogan
New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern cancels her wedding amid new Omicron restrictions
S.Korea says Iran to regain UN vote after delinquent dues paid with frozen funds
Electricity generation of Iran’s Bandar Abbas TPP surges
Uz-Kor Gas Chemical opens tender for purchase spare parts for analyzers and gas detectors
SCO to consider draft program proposed by Uzbekistan
Iran-Russia annual trade to increase to $10 b from $4 b
Kazakhstan confirms 14,012 new COVID-19 cases in 24 hr
French EU lawmaker Collard joins far-right presidential candidate Zemmour
Pfizer, Moderna boosters up to 90% effective against Omicron: CDC
Turkey’s Turkovac to be tested as booster for Pfizer-BioNTech jab
Guinea junta establishes council to lead transition to elections
Visit aims to rebuild trust with Lebanon: Kuwait foreign minister
UK records 76,807 new COVID cases, 297 deaths
EU Commissioner for Energy to visit Azerbaijan
Pfizer CEO sees annual COVID vaccine rather than frequent boosters
US Dept of State plans to begin evacuation of US embassy staff from Kiev on Jan 24
Blast hits western Afghan city of Herat, killing at least six
Georgia’s coal imports from Kazakhstan triple
Presidential administration of Georgia submits candidates for election commission to parliament
Remittances to Uzbekistan in 2021 totaled USD 8 bln
Iran seeks long-term, all-out ties with Turkey - Raeisi
Massive California wildfire triggers evacuations, closes highway
Italy's Berlusconi decides against running for president
Azerbaijan, Iran talk military cooperation
Azerbaijani chess player continues to lead in Tata Steel Masters tournament
Serviceman of Azerbaijan Army dies in non-combat conditions
Number of Turkish jobseekers in Uzbekistan revealed for 2021
UAE stops all private drone activities, light sports aircrafts
Airbus cancels $6bn contract with Qatar Airways
German conservatives elect right-winger Merz as new party leader
Non-hydro renewables overtake hydro for first time in Turkey
Record-breaking indicators in non-oil sector - what is secret to success of Azerbaijan's economic strategy?
Iran shares data on exports from Aras Free Trade Zone
Kazakhstan names damage caused to business as result of large-scale rallies
Georgia publishes COVID-19 data for January 22
Iran’s Bahar Azadi gold coin price dips
India now allows 6 people to register on one number for Covid vaccination
Azerbaijan shares data on number of vaccinated citizens
Azerbaijan confirms 1,614 more COVID-19 cases, 610 recoveries
Azerbaijan changes rules for quarantine control of Covid-19
India's Karnataka approves design & launch of nano-satellite by govt school students at Rs 1.9 Cr
‘One Modi cannot change a country, need more icons like him’: Himanta Biswa Sarma
Seizing of illegally stored weapons from citizens continues in Kazakhstan - interior minister
Azerbaijani border serviceman commits suicide in military hospital
Iran unveils details of agricultural export
Kazakh Armed Forces performing tasks to ensure public order in regions with “red” level of terrorist threat
Tokyo hits record 10,000 COVID cases, Japan over 50,000 for first time
Number of COVID-19 infections in Russia surpasses 11 mln since pandemic began
Kazakhstan developing measures to reform Samruk-Kazyna Fund's activities
PMO records surge in load/unload operations at Iranian ports
S&P predicts gas production growth in Azerbaijan through 2025
Turkmen medical enterprise discloses production data
Azerbaijan to hold auction for Ferrum Kapital CJSC's bonds
Kazakh president talks need to continue work to reveal all circumstances of recent riots
Kazakh oil and gas company to purchase helium via tender
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for January 22
Oil price spikes likely in 2022 amid inventory tightness midyear
7 killed, 16 injured in massive fire in central Mumbai high-rise
All news